Arizona at Colorado Game Prediction

ICYMI Part I: What to Expect From Colorado
ICYMI Part II: The Mailbag Oct. 1

The Wildcats have enjoyed success their last three trips to Boulder, including two years ago when Khalil Tate came off the bench to deliver one of the greatest single-game performances in the history of college football.

Fast-forward to the present and there’s an interesting scenario awaiting Arizona’s return. If Tate is healthy, he will have the unique opportunity to take the field in Boulder where he became one of the Pac-12’s most feared athletes. If he is not healthy and able to play, then the Wildcats must try to beat the Buffaloes with a backup quarterback all over again.

This time around, things are different in Boulder. Colorado’s first-year head coach, Mel Tucker, is quickly reestablishing the identity of the Buffaloes. He wants a tough, physical and disciplined style of play that is already beginning to take shape.

Colorado was unfazed by a 17-0 second-half deficit against Nebraska when Folsom Field was half-full of Cornhusker fans. The Buffaloes buckled down, sent the game to overtime and pulled out a statement win for Tucker in only his second game.

While they lost an overtime game the following week, the Buffaloes quickly regrouped, hit the road and upset a ranked Arizona State team on a short week with a Friday night win in Tempe. It was the most complete four-quarter game of the year for Tucker’s team, something he surely took the opportunity to build on during a bye week.

Something else Tucker & Co. hope the bye week brought: an opportunity for the Buffaloes to get healthy. Several key players have been banged up, headlined by do-everything playmaker Laviska Shenault Jr. He is a dynamic, game-changing player that will draw Arizona’s attention if he plays, but Colorado does have plenty of other offensive playmakers to fill the void if he cannot go.

For Arizona, it brings a three-game win streak to Boulder and has, for the time being, put a disappointing season-opening loss at Hawai’i in the rear-view mirror. However, the Wildcats have struggled mightily on the road in recent seasons, making Saturday’s clash with Colorado another measuring stick game for second-year head coach Kevin Sumlin.

The Wildcats’ defense has made notable progress in recent weeks, though taking that effort on the road in a hostile environment will show just how much improvement has truly been made. That will also be the case for Arizona’s offense, whether it’s the senior, Tate, or the true freshman, Grant Gunnell, taking the reins.

All of that said, the winner of this game emerges as a dark horse contender in the Pac-12 South. Utah, Arizona State, UCLA and USC all have at least one conference loss, meaning either Arizona or Colorado will be the lone unbeaten heading into the second week of October.

Now, let’s take a look at the keys to the game from the perspective of the Arizona Wildcats.

1. Start Fast (Offense)
2. Finish Drives (Offense)
3. Keep Plays in Front, Tackle (Defense, Special Teams)
4. Get Montez on the Ground (Defense)
5. Play Disciplined (all phases)
Bonus: Hydration and Conditioning (All phases, four quarters)

I don’t typically go in depth for my keys to a game since they often speak for themselves and summarize critical points identified in the “What to Expect” post from earlier in the week that scouts the opponent.

However, there are some things that we can consider to understand why hydration is one the of keys to Saturday’s game.

I noted at the end of this week’s “What to Expect From Colorado” story that I have been impressed by Arizona’s conditioning this season, especially late in the wins over Texas Tech and UCLA. I think it’s a by-product of the full year of work in strength and conditioning coach Brian Johnson’s program, plus the fact the Wildcats have been able to play more players earlier in the season.

Yet, playing at Colorado brings with it the element of elevation, as Boulder sits at an average elevation over 5,300 feet. The change in elevation for the Wildcats isn’t as significant as say the California schools (closer to sea level) considering Tucson’s average elevation is actually around 2,400 feet.

The reason I identify hydration as a key for this week is because of the time of the game: 2:30 p.m. (in Boulder). The Wildcats have played only evening games in their recent visits to Colorado, and it’s actually an odd time of day for a football team when you factor in hydration and nutrition. Most teams want to have a pregame meal three-and-a-half to four hours prior to kickoff. That would put a pregame meal in the 10:30-11 a.m. window this Saturday. But is there time for breakfast, too?

One school of thought would be to let players sleep in and get as much rest as possible on a game day. This often happens for night games. But sleeping in for an afternoon game at elevation would leave the players only a few hours to get their bodies rehydrated from a night of rest while fluids are lost in sleep.

While hydration has to start before the Wildcats head to Boulder, sleeping too long and replenishing the liquids too late on Saturday could lead to hydration issues during the game. Especially since the Wildcats aren’t going to actually feel hot during the game like they may in Tucson or Hawai’i back in August.

The temperature in Boulder should be seasonable, in the mid-60s at kickoff, which is near average this time of year, and cooling throughout the game as the shadows set in and the temperature drops.  It’s worth noting the visiting sideline at Folsom Field is on the west side and under the press box, which means it will be in shadows most of the game, anyway.

I would expect the Wildcats to tackle the hydration concern first by hydrating well in advance and during their trip. Then once in Boulder, keep hydrating Friday night, and wake up early Saturday morning to not only resume hydrating, but to get an early snack or meal in their system (with the regular pregame meal  still in the 10:30-11 a.m. window). Waiting until mid-morning to wake up, eat and begin replenishing the fluids lost during sleep could otherwise be troublesome for some players come game time.

Arizona’s last three trips to Boulder have all produced wins, so this has not been an issue. But those games were each at 5 p.m. or later local time, meaning the day naturally presented time for rest, hydration and two meals like most game days in the #Pac12AfterDark world.

If the Wildcats are going to be successful in their other keys to the game this week, they will need to avoid any concerns in regards to hydration. Like Arizona, Colorado is accustomed to playing a full four quarters given their multiple overtime games and a late victory at Arizona State two weeks ago. The Wildcats have to be ready for another battle to the end. So get up, get hydrated and play football.  

Arizona wins if …

Regardless of which quarterback starts, the offense gets off to a fast start. The Wildcats need to build early confidence to put aside the recent road woes, which were amplified with the slow start at Hawai’i. Getting the initial first downs on drives will be critical, and for the successful drives, finishing them with touchdowns will be essential. The Wildcats moved the ball well with Gunnell last week, but for a variety of reasons, including his own missed opportunities in the red zone, Arizona had to settle for three field goal tries. This week, finishing drives with touchdowns will take greater precedence by being on the road in a hostile environment and playing a more explosive offense in Colorado. On the defensive side of the ball, it’s quite simple. Arizona has to keep the Buffaloes’ playmakers in front and tackle well in space. Whether Laviska Shenault Jr. plays or not, Colorado has weapons and will set them up for one-on-one opportunities. The Wildcats will need to limit those big plays over the top and prevent short gains from turning into significant gains with missed tackles. Ultimately, Arizona needs a breakout game from its pass rush to pressure quarterback Steven Montez. He is prolific when he has a clean pocket and does not have to account for pressure. Arizona must get push from its defensive front, and when blitzes are dialed up, they have to get home and make Montez get rid of the ball before his eyes can identify playmakers downfield.  Lastly, while field position was critical last week and certainly is critical in any game, the Wildcats must play a clean and disciplined game. If the Wildcats can play a relatively penalty-free game, their chances of picking up a key road win increase.

Arizona loses if …

Colorado jumps out to an early lead and the Wildcats are forced to play catch up with Gunnell as a true freshman. The Buffaloes will want to get their home crowd riled up early, so I expect them to take a couple big shots in the early stages of this one. They also are going to turn up the heat defensively to slow down Arizona’s run game and force the Wildcats to pass, whether Gunnell or Tate is behind center. If Arizona cannot get the offense moving early and take advantage of the weaknesses in Colorado’s defense, it may be hard for the Wildcats’ defense to slow down the Buffaloes. Make no mistake, Colorado has plenty of playmakers offensively, and if Montez has a clean pocket and has time to throw, he can catch fire. When he plays with confidence, he’s pretty darn good. Taking that confidence away from him will be the challenge for Arizona’s defense. With that said, Tucker and his staff will have a disciplined approach that tests Arizona’s toughness in a variety of ways, something that has lacked for the Wildcats away from home. One has to wonder if Arizona can respond and rally back if the momentum goes the way of the Buffaloes early. At the same time, if it becomes a four-quarter, drag-out game, is Arizona equipped to handle the challenges of executing in key situations?

The Prediction:

Arizona 35, Colorado 30

This week’s Top 25 and Pac-12 Picks to Click can be viewed here.

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