Like many teams with first-year head coaches, Colorado is a tricky to team to figure out because of their inconsistency.
In Week 2, Nebraska dominated the game for much of three quarters, taking a seemingly commanding 17-0 lead. However, the Buffaloes came to life late in the third quarter, rallying to win the game in overtime, 34-31.
A week later, against Air Force, Colorado jumped out to a quick 10-0 lead. By the early stages of the fourth quarter, the Falcons had overcome the deficit and led 23-10. The Buffaloes did score two touchdowns in the final 6:09 of regulation, but an extra point was blocked on the first score, so they went to overtime once again. Air Force prevailed, 30-23.
To its credit, Colorado quickly responded with perhaps its most complete performance on the road at Arizona State. The Buffaloes again raced to am early lead (14-0), and while the Sun Devils were able to claw their way back to tie the game multiple times, Colorado never gave up the lead.
Mel Tucker is a defensive-minded head coach who has coordinator experience at both the NFL and collegiate ranks, most recently at Georgia before he accepted the head job in Boulder. However, he inherited a roster with more offensive talent, especially at the skill positions, and a fifth-year senior quarterback with as much experience as any player in the conference.
The talent and experience on offense have shown, especially in the passing game. The Buffaloes average 35.8 points and 438.5 yards of offense per game (291.0 passing to 143.8 rushing). However, the defense allows 30.8 points and 466.5 yards per game (291.0 passing to 175.5 rushing).
Statistically, there are similarities between the Buffaloes and the Wildcats. Arizona leads the conference in total offense and rushing, while its defense falls in the bottom half of the league in most categories.
The one area that is strikingly similar for these squads: turnover margin. Colorado leads the conference with a plus-7 margin, while Arizona is second at plus-6. Both have created 11 turnovers.
These teams are also similar in one other way: key injuries. The Wildcats were without quarterback Khalil Tate and All-American back/returner J.J. Taylor for last week’s win over UCLA. While the Buffaloes had a bye last week, there are lingering injury questions as well, notably to star receiver Laviska Shenault and defensive end Mustafa Johnson. The availability of Tate and Shenault are high-impact questions heading into this game for both sides.
Ultimately, Saturday is going to be a clash of programs at slightly different stages of their development. Arizona is in its second year under Kevin Sumlin, but has yet to take its best efforts on the road. I detailed some of those struggles in my Tuesday Mailbag, and the numbers were striking.
On the other side, Colorado is still in the early stages of Tucker’s leadership. Yet it’s clear he wants a tougher, more physical team. They aren’t complete enough yet to win with defense the way Tucker envisions in the future, but they have enough playmakers on offense to make things difficult for most any team in the conference.
It will be Family Weekend in Boulder and, despite the home loss to Air Force a few weeks ago, a festive and energetic crowd will be on hand. The Wildcats have yet to play in front of a crowd of more than 40,000 (and change) at home or away. I expect a crowd in excess of 50,000 and near capacity at Folsom Field, so it will be a true road test.
Let’s take a look at a few of the key things to look for from Colorado this week based on my review of the Nebraska and Arizona State games.
What to Expect From Colorado’s Offense
Multiple Looks
The Buffaloes have plenty of playmakers on their roster, so they want to spread things out most of the time to get those players in space and create one-on-one matchups. However, there are a couple of specific packages that Colorado likes to run to keep defenses off-balance.
The first is the under-center package that looks to condense the field and bring more players near the line of scrimmage. It is designed to use inside run plays to set up either jet sweeps to get to the corner or to set up play action passes, often seeking big plays (the flea-flicker vs. Nebraska being one example).
A second shift from their basic spread package is the Wildcat, which they run most effectively with a healthy Shenault as the quarterback. Quarterback Steven Montez remains in the game, but shifts out wide and Shenault takes the direct snap. He’s a physical runner that can pound it up inside for short yards, or take it outside and use his combination of speed and strength to make big plays against smaller defenders on the edge.
Finally, Colorado is not afraid to use tempo if it needs something to jump-start the offense. The Buffaloes will typically have a play called, then Montez will run it if he likes the look or check to the sideline for a new play based on the defense. But they will switch to tempo from time to time to keep a defense off balance, especially in the redzone or following a big play when they feel they have momentum.
Stop the Run
While Colorado has talented playmakers on offense, the offensive line is still a work in progress. It is doing a better job of protecting Montez in the passing game, but the Buffaloes haven’t been able to consistently run the football.
Colorado has a couple solid backs (that can catch the ball out of the backfield, too), but they are averaging under four yards per carry as a team. Still, this is part of the identity that Tucker and his staff want to instill, so don’t expect them to completely abandon the run.
Having a week off, they have certainly studied Arizona’s run schemes up front and will have plays they think can be successful early. If the Buffaloes can establish a run game early, it will make them very difficult to stop because they use a lot of misdirection and play-action as it is.
It will be an important week for Arizona’s defensive front, including the linebackers, to be disciplined in their assignments. The safeties, outside linebackers and corners are going to need to keep contain and tackle well in space against the run and short passing game.
Make Montez Move
A veteran quarterback in the Pac-12, Montez appears more willing to trust his protection, stay in the pocket and keep his eyes downfield as a senior. Earlier in his career, he was prone to panic in the pocket and take his eyes away from receivers as he looked to scramble.
Even so, he is a much better passer from the pocket when he trusts his protection and can scan the field. His receivers are talented enough that they are going to get open if given enough time, often for big plays. The Wildcats have to pressure Montez and get his feet moving where his accuracy begins to decline.
However, Montez can pull the ball down and pick up yards with his feet (plus they have some designed runs for him out of any package), so pass rushers must stay in their lanes and keep eyes on him at all times. Arizona was greatly improved in this area after the opening drive against UCLA last week.
As noted above, stopping the run early can help put the ball in Montez’s hands in predictable situations. In those situations, the Wildcats needs to dial up pressure, get off blocks, make Montez move and get him to the ground or force a bad throw.
What to Expect From Colorado’s Defense
Another 3-4 Base Defense
The Buffaloes are a 3-4 defense that play a lot of man-to-man on the outside, but they will mix zone coverages underneath. This is quite similar to UCLA a week ago, which showed freshman quarterback Grant Gunnell a variety of blitzes out of a 3-4 with linebackers or defensive linemen dropping into shallow zones.
Once again, I feel this will be an important game for Arizona’s inside receivers using their speed and quickness in both the run (jet sweeps, screens, etc) and pass game to exploit the linebackers at the second level of the defense.
Thus far, Colorado has not received tremendous pass rush from its defensive front, so they must get creative with blitzing linebackers, safeties or even a cornerback from time to time when an offense gets predictable. Their top pass rusher, Johnson, may not be available due to an injury, but if he plays, it’s a significant boost to what they can do off the edge.
If Arizona can establish an early run game, it will pull numbers down to the line of scrimmage and free up one-on-one opportunities on the edge. Colorado wants to stop the run, and will make sure if they get beat by Arizona, it is by either Tate or Gunnell passing it.
Win the Perimeter
Arizona will have an advantage with speed and quickness on the perimeter, which will help stretch the outside linebackers and safeties away from the middle of the field. Making those players defend in space will be critical.
The jet sweeps, inside and buddle screens, and running backs out of the backfield will soften the middle of the Colorado defense to either set up the run game or passing game over the middle.
For this to be successful, Arizona has to be physical on the outside. Cedric Peterson has been a very solid blocker in his career and Drew Dixon is really developing into a solid blocker as well. But the Wildcats as a group have to consistently block well on the outside in this game because opportunities will be there.
Colorado was tested in this regard by Nebraska and they adjusted well by bringing numbers to closer to the line of scrimmage in the second half. If this happens, Arizona has to be able accurately throw the football, something Taylor Martinez (NU quarterback) was unable to do.
One question I do have for Arizona in this area is that if Tate is unavailable to play, can Gunnell get the ball delivered quickly to the perimeter? He was inaccurate and slow getting out some of those throws last week, so if he is the guy, he will have to be improved in this part of the game.
Tempo
Whether Tate or Gunnell get the start at quarterback, I would like to see Arizona use tempo to its advantage if the offense does not get rolling early. There have been times the Buffaloes have been slow to get lined up when presented with tempo, and it simplifies their defensive calls.
Coming off a bye week, the Buffaloes surely have some tweaks in their system and some new looks to give the Wildcats regardless of which quarterback plays. Using tempo limits the ability of Tucker and his staff to rotate personnel and mix up their calls.
The last thing Arizona wants is quick three-and-outs offensively that put the defense right back on the field, so getting the initial first down of each drive is key regardless of the tempo. But if Arizona finds that Colorado is honed in on some things, the tempo switch could be the necessary counter.
I have been impressed with the Wildcats’ overall conditioning this season, and the last two games have been strong indicators of that with dominant fourth quarter performances. This is a game the Wildcats can win with their overall speed and depth by pushing Colorado to match them on both sides of the ball. I would like to see Arizona play fast and physical in this one.
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