Link: CFP Official Rankings
The regular season has come and gone, and the only thing left to decide before the postseason picture takes shape is the conference championship games.
It used to be my belief that conference title games were meaningless and were created mostly for television interests, but that was before the Bowl Championship Series system was dissolved and the College Football Playoff was created.
Now, I chuckle when some suggest that conference championship games are irrelevant in today’s college football landscape. Some (like Dan Wetzel) even think that the solution is to get rid of them altogether and then expand the College Football Playoff. However, the current 4-team playoff and certainly an expanded playoff are the very reasons conference championship games are, in fact, relevant today.
The most common suggestion for an expanded playoff is going to eight teams. The foundation of that model is taking the five champions from Power 5 conferences, two at-large selections and the highest-ranked Group of 5 or independent team.
In order for that model (and others similar to it) to be implemented, we still have to identify Power 5 conference champions, which is easier said than done since every conference is unique. Essentially, this is why we have to have conference championship games.
Leagues across the country vary not only in how many members they have, but also in how many conference games they play. The SEC and ACC play only eight conference games, while the Pac-12, Big 10 and Big 12 all play nine league contests. We can argue that there should be standards for all teams to play the same number of conference games, but schedule strength varies even for teams in the same conference with the unbalanced schedules. Additionally, not all roads to a conference championship are the same; most pit division winners since they have too many teams for a round-robin regular season, but the Big 12 does play a round robin slate and still has a conference championship game.
Regardless of the structure of a conference, we need a champion identified both for the current CFP selection criteria and especially in the future should there be something like the 8-team model described above where a conference champion receives an automatic berth. As it stands, here is the current criteria the CFP committee is supposed to use as a guide when differentiating between similarly successful teams:
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
- Championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
My biggest gripe about the current CFP structure is not that it only includes four teams, but that we do not have a clear set of criteria the committee is using to rank the teams each week and, most importantly, on Selection Sunday.
Despite the actual rankings being completely meaningless until after conference championship games (remember, championships won is a criteria to be considered when comparing teams!), each Tuesday night from the beginning of November onward we are teased with the latest CFP rankings. All these rankings do is confuse us as to what the committee values because they contradict themselves constantly, often in the same set of rankings when we are told A is better than B because of X, but C is better than D in spite of X.
The only rankings that matter are the final ones, which is what we will look forward to on Sunday.
With that said, what we have are two likely locks heading into Selection Sunday, one semi-lock, one win-and-in, one win-and-probably-in, and one that needs a little extra help. Oh, and there is a wild card scenario if chaos ensues.
If that is confusing, let’s break it down this way.
Ohio State and LSU are the undisputed top two teams having put together undefeated seasons from strong conferences. Each could suffer a loss this weekend in their respective conference championship game and still be in very good shape for a top-four ranking. The caveat would be one or both of these things happening in a loss: 1) an unexpected blowout loss, and 2) the loss of a key player like the quarterbacks Joe Burrow or Justin Fields.
That takes us to the semi-lock, which is the reigning national champion, Clemson. The Tigers, a four-touchdown favorite, are obviously in with a win over Virginia. Should Ohio State and LSU both take of business, Clemson could probably still scoot by with a close loss. However, there are scenarios that could topple the Tigers from the top four should they be upset this weekend.
Barring upsets to either of the three teams listed above, the real intrigue this weekend is who becomes the fourth team in the playoff. The easiest scenario is Georgia beats LSU in a close SEC Championship game, with the Bulldogs sealing their place in the top four as the SEC champion and LSU, which now would have one loss, still standing above the other one-loss teams currently behind Georgia.
A Georgia loss, however, sets the stage for Utah to play its way into the playoff should it defeat Oregon on Friday night in the Pac-12 Championship game. In that scenario, the Utes would have to keep an eye on Oklahoma, which could impress the committee with a big win over Baylor. It will be interesting to see where the Bears and Ducks are ranked Tuesday night, and then consider if an ugly Utah win could be overshadowed by an impressive Oklahoma victory.
It is the Sooners who definitely need the extra help, because they have been consistently ranked behind the Pac-12 teams in the CFP rankings throughout the month of November. Plus, like Utah, Oklahoma needs Georgia to lose to set things in motion.
The scenario that would really shake things up is if Georgia and Utah both lose, while Baylor knocks off Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship. That would leave Baylor as the best available one-loss team not presently in the top four. A less plausible scenario would include Clemson also losing (big) and opening the door for consideration of a two-loss team such as Alabama or especially Oregon (which would now have a conference championship).
So yes, there is plenty to play for this weekend in the conference championships even if favorites have played well in recent years.
We can discuss perfecting college football in the off-season, but to me it is already the most exciting sport and we should enjoy the games we have left before the 8-month off-season sets in.
Note: With no major changes to the Pac-12 Power Rankings, I have only listed this week’s National Top 10 below. I will update the Pac-12 Power Rankings heading into bowl season and then re-rank teams, if necessary, for my final end of year rankings in early January.
Dry Heat Sports National Top 10
1. Ohio State (12-0, 9-0
Big 10 East)
Last Week: Won at Michigan, 56-27
Next Game: Saturday vs. Wisconsin (Big 10 Championship Game)
So long as the Buckeyes do not get blown out and/or suffer any significant injuries this weekend, they are probably safe as a top-four team. But, there’s a reason the games are played.
2. LSU (12-0, 8-0 SEC
West)
Last Week: Won vs. Texas A&M, 50-7
Next Game: Saturday vs. Georgia (SEC Championship Game)
Like Ohio State, the Tigers are a pretty safe bet to be a top-four pick if they can avoid an unexpected humiliating loss coupled with an injury to say Joe Burrow.
3. Clemson (12-0, 8-0
ACC Atlantic)
Last Week: Won at South Carolina, 38-3
Next Game: Saturday vs. Virginia (ACC Championship Game)
All Clemson needs to do is win. Not many give the Tigers credit because they haven’t had many big games on their slate, but the analytics suggest this team may be as good as last year. Should they lose, then things get interesting.
4. Georgia (11-1, 7-1
SEC East)
Last Week: Won at Georgia Tech, 52-7
Next Game: Saturday vs. LSU (SEC Championship Game)
Everyone that clamors for an eight-team playoff gets a quasi-quarterfinal matchup this week. If Georgia wins, it advances to the “Final Four”, which probably means the SEC gets two teams into the CFB Playoff.
5. Utah (11-1, 8-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Colorado, 45-15
Next Game: Friday vs. Oregon (Pac-12 Championship Game)
The Utes have been both consistent and dominant since losing to USC on a Friday in September. One more strong win (over Oregon) paired with an LSU victory will most likely vault Utah in the CFB Playoff.
6. Oklahoma (11-1, 8-1 Big
12)
Last Week: Won at Oklahoma State, 34-16
Next Game: Saturday vs. Baylor (Big 12 Championship Game)
The Sooners may be on the outside looking in, but there’s always hope chaos ensues in front of them. The first order of business, though, is defeating Baylor more convincingly than they did last time.
7. Alabama (10-2, 6-2
SEC West)
Last Week: Lost at Auburn, 48-45
Next Game: Bowl game TBA
Nick Saban’s team is very good, but not quite championship good this season. The loss to Auburn will sting for a while.
8. Florida (9-2, 6-2 SEC
East)
Last Week: Won vs. Florida State, 40-17
Next Game: Bowl game TBA
Much like Alabama, Florida was just a few plays away from being in the playoff mix. Instead, Georgia, which beat the Gators the first week of November, is the SEC’s best chance at a second team in the playoff.
9. Baylor (11-1, 8-1 Big
12)
Last Week: Won at Kansas, 61-6
Next Game: Saturday vs. Oklahoma (Big 12 Championship Game)
It would be a long shot, but Matt Rhule’s team has a slim chance at the playoff if it can crush Oklahoma and then watch several other dominoes fall its way this weekend. The first would be Oregon upsetting Utah on Friday night.
10. Wisconsin (10-2, 7-2
Big 10 West)
Last Week: Won at Minnesota, 38-17
Next Game: Saturday vs. Ohio State (Big 10 Championship Game)
All Wisconsin can do is play spoiler to Ohio State, which should be in the playoff unless the Badgers win in a surprising rout. Wisconsin’s head-scratching loss to Illinois is a little too much to overcome to make the playoff even if it shocked the Buckeyes.
Dropped Out: #9 Minnesota – Lost vs. Wisconsin, 38-17
View last week’s rankings here.
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