The final week of the regular season is here, and what a ride it has been.
I know many are clamoring for the College Football Playoff to expand, but watching a team like Oregon fight for its playoff life in the fourth quarter in Tempe last week is one of the things that makes college football so special. Every game matters during the regular season.
This week, there will be plenty of those matchups to watch as big games and bitter rivalries take center stage.
It is hard to pick the biggest game because the stakes are slightly different for all the teams, so let’s start at the top of my National Top 10 Rankings.
Ohio State travels to Ann Arbor against rival Michigan. A win very well could move the Buckeyes into the No. 1 spot of the CFP Rankings if the committee leaves them at No. 2 this week. That would be important because it may give them immunity if they would eventually lose a tough game in the Big Ten Championship. With that said, a loss this week to Michigan may not eliminate Ohio State from the playoff discussion as it will have another crack at impressive victory in the conference championship game against either a 1-loss Minnesota team or a 2-loss Wisconsin squad. Those programs play each other Saturday, which we’ll discuss more in a bit.
Next up is LSU, which has the best wins of the season (although that early season win at Texas isn’t quite as impressive as it once was. The Tigers must avoid a setback this week against Texas A&M, but either way would be all but guaranteed a spot in the CFB Playoff if they went on to win the SEC Championship game over Georgia. From that standpoint, LSU’s scenario may be as simple as needed just one more win to get into the playoff. The only consequence, should they lose a game, would be seeding.
Quietly waiting to move up the rankings is Clemson, which finished ACC play undefeated and had a late-season bye. Dabo Sweeney’s group now must stave off another upset bid from South Carolina, which handed Georgia its lone loss of the season. Assuming Clemson does not stumble this week or in the ACC Championship game, it will keep an eye on Ohio State and LSU to potentially move up a spot or two before the final rankings are unveiled on Dec. 8.
The battle for the fourth position is where most of the intrigue is. Georgia, which boasts perhaps the nation’s best defense, is clinging to that fourth position – for now. The problem for the Bulldogs (besides a stagnant offense at times) is they have to face LSU in the SEC Championship game. It is the ultimate play-in game for Kirby Smart & Co., with a win likely securing a berth in the playoff and a loss surely keeping Georgia on the outside looking in.
The latter scenario is what everyone is keeping an eye on. Who will be No. 4 if Georgia loses?
That is a complicated scenario with multiple contenders.
I’ll start with Alabama, which is No. 5 in my rankings and likely No. 5 once against for the CFP Committee. The Crimson Tide will not have the benefit of playing for a conference championship, which is the biggest factor against their case to get in. That leaves them with only this week’s Iron Bowl to show that they are a championship-caliber team even without Tua Tagovailoa. There are enough playmakers on the Crimson Tide offense to keep them at that elite status, but they are facing an Auburn defense that has not surrendered more than 24 points this season, including losses to Florida, LSU and Georgia.
Next up would be Utah, which has been one of the nation’s most complete teams for the last two months. The Utes lone loss was back in September on a Friday night at USC, which is a better loss than Georgia (at South Carolina) and Oklahoma (at Kansas State) have on their resumes. However, Utah doesn’t have any true marquee wins on its resume, but could add one against Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game even though the Ducks won’t be a playoff contender any longer. Before we get there, though, Utah must take care of business this week against Colorado simply to get to the Pac-12 title game, or else USC will be the Pac-12 South winner.
There is a decent bit of separation, in my mind, for the other three playoff contenders: Oklahoma, Minnesota and Baylor.
The Sooners have squeaked out back-to-back close wins, keeping them as a one-loss contender. They will need to avoid an upset this week in the Bedlam game at Oklahoma State, then will face off with Baylor once again in the Big 12 Championship. The Bears face Kansas this week, and barring a huge upset, will have a chance to creep back into the playoff discussion should they knock off Oklahoma in the rematch. However, they will still need help with one or two teams losing in front of them (Clemson, Georgia, Alabama or Utah).
In the Big 10, P.J. Fleck’s Golden Gophers still have a chance to shake things up. They can add another quality win if they knock off the Badgers this weekend. ESPN’s College GameDay is making its first stop in Minneapolis, if the game wasn’t big enough already. The winner of this one goes on to face Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. That will certainly have ramifications for the Buckeyes, but should Minnesota make it all the way to the title game, a win could very easily vault them into the top four as a conference champion.
If history tells us anything, there is still a lot of football to be played before we figure out this playoff race. As Ralph Russo of the Associated Press pointed out this week, never have the top four teams in the CFP Rankings entering rivalry week gone on to be the same set of top four teams on Selection Sunday.
Sit back and enjoy the games. Happy Thanksgiving!
Now for this week’s Power Rankings …
DryHeatSports.com National Top 10
1. Ohio State (11-0, 8-0
Big 10 East)
Last Week: Won vs. Penn State, 28-17
Next Game: Saturday at Michigan
It wasn’t always pretty, but Ohio State did what it needed to do against Penn State. Now, Michigan awaits in Ann Arbor, but they Buckeyes may have a path to the CFB Playoff even with a loss this week.
2. LSU (11-0, 7-0 SEC
West)
Last Week: Won vs. Arkansas, 56-20
Next Game: Saturday vs. Texas A&M
Like Ohio State, even a loss this week may not matter in the chase for the CFB Playoff should they win the SEC Championship game against Georgia. But the battle for No. 1 is hot between these teams.
3. Clemson (11-0, 8-0
ACC Atlantic)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday at South Carolina
Fresh off a late-season bye, Dabo Sweeney’s squad can creep up the rankings should Ohio State or LSU slip up. But remember, this week’s opponent – South Carolina – already knocked off one CFB Playoff contender this season (Georgia).
4. Georgia (10-1, 7-1
SEC East)
Last Week: Won vs. Texas A&M, 19-13
Next Game: Saturday at Georgia Tech
The Bulldogs pulled out a rain-soaked victory over a pesky Texas A&M bunch. Georgia shouldn’t have much trouble this week, but everything will be on the line in the SEC Championship game vs. LSU.
5. Alabama (10-1, 7-1
SEC West)
Last Week: Won vs. Western Carolina, 66-3
Next Game: Saturday at Auburn
Mac Jones and the Crimson Tide did as expected in their tune up game against an FCS foe, but now it’s time to see if the Alabama offense can still carry them to the playoff without Tua Tagovailoa. Nick Saban & Co. need a convincing victory, not a squeaker.
6. Utah (10-1, 7-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won at Arizona, 35-7
Next Game: Saturday vs. Colorado
Kyle Whittingham’s Utes are the last Pac-12 team standing in the CFB Playoff race, and they have been both dominant and consistent much of the season since their early loss to USC. Can they finish the deal this week and make the Pac-12 Championship a potential play-in game for themselves?
7. Oklahoma (10-1, 7-1 Big
12)
Last Week: Won vs. TCU, 28-24
Next Game: Saturday at Oklahoma State
Somehow, someway the Sooners have escaped the last couple weeks. While not always dominant, they remain in the thick of things as a one-loss contender, but would benefit from a convincing finish to the season.
8. Florida (9-2, 6-2 SEC
East)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday vs. Florida State
The Gators are not in the thick of things for the CFB Playoff race, but they are a very solid team with hard-fought losses to Georgia and LSU.
9. Minnesota (10-1, 7-1
Big Ten East)
Last Week: Won at Northwestern, 38-22
Next Game: Saturday vs. Wisconsin
It’s yet another big November game for the Gophers, this time against Wisconsin. Winner goes to the Big 10 Championship game, which could be a path to the CFB Playoff for Minnesota.
10. Baylor (10-1, 7-1 Big
12)
Last Week: Won vs. Texas, 24-10
Next Game: Saturday at Kansas
Baylor’s most impressive game by far was last week’s bounce back win against Texas following a heart-breaking loss to Oklahoma. Now the Bears are set for a re-match against the Sooners, but cannot afford to stumble this week in Lawrence for bigger picture prizes.
Dropped Out: #7 Oregon – Lost at Arizona State, 31-28
View last week’s rankings here.
Pac-12 Power Rankings
South Division
1. Utah (10-1, 7-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won at Arizona, 35-7
Next Game: Saturday vs. Colorado
Kyle Whittingham finally has Utah in position to win the Pac-12 South, but a pesky Colorado team awaits. Can the Utes finish the job and keep the Pac-12 alive in the College Football Playoff race?
2. USC (8-4, 7-2 Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. UCLA, 52-35
Next Game: Regular season complete
Clay Helton and the Trojans are rooting for the Buffaloes this weekend. An upset in Salt Lake City would put USC in the conference title game. Could that shake up the debate in Helton’s job security?
3. Arizona State (6-5, 3-5
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Oregon, 31-28
Next Game: Saturday vs. Arizona
The Sun Devils delivered one of the upsets of the year by stunning the Ducks a week ago. Another win this week will stick a fork in the spirits of their rivals to the south.
4. Colorado (5-6, 3-5 Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Washington, 20-14
Next Game: Saturday at Utah
The Buffaloes have clawed back from the cellar in the south, but getting a sixth win to achieve bowl eligibility is a difficult task against a dominating Utah squad.
5. UCLA (4-7, 4-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at USC, 52-35
Next Game: Saturday vs. California
The three-game win streak from a few weeks back is a distant memory. Dorian
Thompson-Robinson is banged up again, and if he isn’t able to go, it may be a
three-game losing streak to close out the year.
6. Arizona (4-7, 2-6
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost vs. Utah, 35-7
Next Game: Saturday at Arizona State
A Territorial Cup victory is all that is left to salvage of a disappointing season. Another blowout loss would force some decisions to be made in Tucson, but give the Cats a few healthy offensive linemen and they could pull a surprise.
North Division
1. Oregon (9-2, 7-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at Arizona State, 31-28
Next Game: Saturday vs. Oregon State
Going undefeated in the Pac-12 is very hard. The Ducks found that out the hard way. Will they be motivated to bounce back against their rivals?
2. Washington (6-5, 3-5
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at Colorado, 20-14
Next Game: Saturday vs. Washington State
It’s been a head-scratching year for Chris Petersen & Co., who have beaten USC and held second-half leads against both Oregon and Utah. Yet, they’ve haven’t scored more than 14 points in losses to Stanford, Oregon State and Colorado.
3. Washington State (6-5,
3-5 Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Oregon State, 54-53
Next Game: Saturday vs. Washington
Mike Leach has the Cougs bowling once again. Now an Apple Cup victory is ripe for the taking against struggling Washington.
4. Oregon State (5-6, 4-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at Washington State, 54-53
Next Game: Saturday at Oregon
The Beavers were oh-so-close to getting a sixth win last week on the Palouse. Now, perhaps they can catch the Ducks sulking after being eliminated from CFP contention.
5. California (6-5, 3-5
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won at Stanford, 24-20
Next Game: Saturday at UCLA
The Golden Bears snapped their losing streak to rival Stanford on the heroics of a late-game touchdown drive led by Chase Garbers. Bowl eligible now, Justin Wilcox’s team can knock off another in-state rival this week.
6. Stanford (4-7, 3-6
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost vs. California, 24-20
Next Game: Saturday vs. Notre Dame
With bowl hopes out the window, all Stanford can do is help add a little late-season credibility to the Pac-12 with an upset of Notre Dame.
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