Final Score: Arizona 35, Colorado 30 | Stats (PDF)
Before we talk about Oct. 5, let’s go back to Aug. 25.
It was the morning after the disappointing season-opening loss at Hawai’i.
I opened my postgame recap with the following:
“Arizona fans are going to have similar reactions to this loss as many from a season ago. That is understandable as there are plenty of similarities, but this team will deserve the opportunity to prove itself over the next 11 weeks.”
I truly believed the team deserved that opportunity to prove itself, and now four games later the Wildcats find themselves on a four-game win streak. Even better, they are one of just two unbeaten teams in Pac-12 play and lead the South Division with a 2-0 record.
The maturation of this team has not been predictable. There was the head-scratching second-half defensive collapse against Northern Arizona, a surprising defensive performance against Texas Tech and then an eye-opening starting debut by a true freshman quarterback in the conference opener.
All off that was great, but this team had another hurdle to climb: winning on the road.
Arizona’s road woes were well-chronicled, and playing before a sold-out Family Weekend crowd in Boulder was not exactly the way to flip those fortunes. Afterall, Colorado was a team coming off an upset of a nationally-ranked Arizona State squad.
None of that mattered to the Wildcats, who welcomed back their senior quarterback, Khalil Tate. Healthy again, and likely motivated by true freshman Grant Gunnell’s winning effort the week before, Tate delivered one of the best all-around games of his career.
The Buffaloes, as was expected, loaded the box and mixed up looks to take away Arizona’s run game. That did not faze offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone, who had a few wrinkles and plenty of perfectly-timed play calls to expose the weaknesses in Colorado’s defense.
Tate was masterful spreading the ball around, completing a pass to 11 receivers, including six with multiple receptions and five with at least 48 receiving yards. It added up to a career-high 404 yards on 31-of-41 passing with three touchdowns.
The lone blemish on Tate’s line was an interception late in the first half, a poor decision that was, at the time, costly. It sparked the Buffaloes to a quick score and, after the teams traded touchdowns, sent them to the locker room with a 20-14 halftime lead.
After halftime, it was the Tate show. He quickly engineered a six-play, 65-yard drive capped by a 33-yard touchdown toss to Brian Casteel to regain the lead. It was only the beginning of what became a 23-of-27 passing performance for 229 yards in the second half alone.
Colorado did hang tough, never allowing Arizona to take a two-score lead. But the Buffaloes, despite twice reclaiming the lead in the second half, never could gain control of the game.
Their best chance to take momentum came early in the fourth quarter when trailing 28-27. A 14-play, 72-yard drive took up 7:13 of play clock from the late third to early fourth quarter, though it resulted in only three points, thanks to a strong defensive stand by the Wildcats.
Quarterback Steven Montez had marched the Buffaloes inside the 5-yardline, but defensive lineman Trevon Mason stuffed a first-down run for a two-yard loss. Linebacker Colin Schooler followed with another stop behind the line of scrimmage, and the Buffaloes could not convert on third down. Thus, they settled for the field goal and a 30-28 lead.
Arizona wasted no time answering, going 85 yards in 1:29 to take the on the next drive. Nathan Tilford finished the drive with a five-yard touchdown run – his second of the game – to take the lead for good, 35-30.
Like last week against UCLA, the Wildcat defense needed a big stop late in the game, and it delivered. Colorado went 29 yards in 10 plays, but could not convert a fourth down across midfield, and Arizona took possession one last time.
Fittingly for Tate, his seven-yard run converted the final first down to allow the Wildcats to run out the clock, just as he did two years ago in his record-breaking rushing performance.
Things will get tougher for the Wildcats going forward. They now wear the bullseyes on their chests as the frontrunners in the Pac-12 South, and the upcoming schedule does no favors.
Still, over the course of the last four games, the 2019 Arizona Wildcats have proved they have a new identity. Every player and coach in the program deserves credit for that, but there is a lot of football to be played and it will be fun to watch.
With that said, let’s review the keys to the game from my Arizona at Colorado Game Prediction.
Start Fast (Offense)
The Wildcats did not score on their first possession, but they began to probe the Colorado defense early on with a pair of first downs before stalling out. A deep shot to Boobie Curry did not connect, and Curry dropped a likely first down on the next play. While Arizona ended up punting, it was clear opportunities were going to be there for Tate in the passing game.
Arizona followed that up with an 8-play, 90-yard touchdown drive on its second possession to take the lead, 7-3, at the end of the first quarter. Do you know the last time the Wildcats led at the end of the first quarter away from home?
It was the 2017 regular season finale at Arizona State.
Otherwise, here were the seven first-half scores prior to Saturday in Boulder: 14-0 (at Hawai’I, 2019), 21-7 (at Washington State, 2018), 7-0 (at UCLA, 2018), 14-0(at Utah, 2018), 7-7 (at Oregon State, 2018), 21-0 (at Houston, 2018), 14-14 (vs. Purdue, 2017).
So the offense did its part early on, even though things slowed down in the second quarter. One of the reasons for this was Arizona’s lack of success on first downs, whether it was short runs or incomplete passes.
The Wildcats averaged only 3.7 yards per play on first down in the first half until Tate hit Peterson for a 75-yard touchdown on a one-play drive late in the second quarter. That play seemed to open things up, as Arizona went on to average 8.7 yards per play on first downs in the second half.
Finish Drives (Offense)
This was one of the biggest reasons Arizona won in Boulder. The Wildcats had five scoring drives and all five resulted in touchdowns (Colorado had six scoring drives, but only three touchdowns).
Last week against UCLA, the Wildcats scored just one touchdown on four red zone drives. This week, Tate and the Wildcats had three red zone trips and each resulted in a touchdown.
What was impressive about finishing those drives was that both second half red zone scores came on the ground. Arizona averaged a meager 3.2 yards per rush for the game, but Nathan Tilford’s two touchdowns were both five-yard scores.
Keep Plays in Front, Tackle (Defense, Special Teams)
Arizona’s defense deserves credit for hanging tough, forcing three field goals and getting the game-winning fourth down stop late in the game.
However, this was the Wildcats’ worst tackling game since the opening game, and they surrendered five big plays (20+ yard gains).
Colorado was successful at getting to the perimeter with either quick passing game or sweeps, where Arizona was blocked too easily. The times the Wildcats defended the edge well initially, they lost leverage and missed tackles too frequently.
Surprisingly, two of Arizona’s veterans – Jace Whittaker and Scottie Young Jr. – missed some key tackles. They weren’t the only ones, and some of the credit has to be given to the Buffaloes, especially receiver Tony Brown, who was really tough to bring down. But Arizona will have to be better collectively going forward.
Whittaker’s struggles were surprising both in coverage and in tackling, but his value is to play multiple positions, including over slot defenders in certain situations. Fortunately, the Wildcats continue to develop depth at the cornerback spot, with Christian Roland-Wallace and Bobby Wolfe seeing meaningful playing time to provide quality depth and versatility to the secondary.
In terms of the big plays, Colorado made its initial charge in the second quarter following Tate’s interception. In the sudden change situation, the Buffaloes went to a trick play and hit a 38-yard touchdown. It was one of three plays of 20-plus yards in the first half, and one of six total passes to gain at least 15 yards.
The Wildcats were much improved keeping plays in front of them in the second half. Colorado had just two 20-plus yard plays, and no additional 15-yard pass plays.
In the special teams game, Lucas Havrisik did very well to put all of his kickoffs through the endzone for touchbacks. At the same time, Colorado totaled 15 yards on two punt returns, another spot where the Wildcats limited big plays.
Get Montez on the Ground (Defense)
This was incredibly frustrating and could have made life easier for Arizona if it was more successful in this regard (especially the end of the first half).
However, despite no sacks, the Wildcats did begin generating pressure throughout the game to make Montez uncomfortable in the pocket. The veteran completed 18-of-25 (72 percent) attempts for 174 yards in the first half, but slumped to 10-of-17 (59 percent) for 125 yards in the second half.
Fittingly, Arizona put the game away by getting Montez to the ground on their final chance, and the last defensive play deserves its own special analysis.
The Buffaloes’ final offensive play was a fourth-and-four at the Arizona 46-yardline. The Wildcats showed three down linemen, but at the snap they blitzed linebackers Tony Fields II and Anthony Pandy for a five-man rush.
It was a risky play call by Marcel Yates since it left man coverage over most of the field (free safety Scottie Young Jr. had to pick up the running back on a wheel route), with linebacker Colin Schooler dropping into a middle zone.
Meanwhile, Finton Connolly got a strong push on the left guard, driving him back into Montez, who was getting pressure off his right side from the blitzing Fields. As Montez delivered a forced throw over the middle of the field, Fields II took him to the ground, and Tristan Cooper had perfect coverage on his receiver as the pass was high and fell incomplete.
Play Disciplined (all phases)
A-plus effort here.
I concluded my “Arizona wins if …” section of my game prediction by stating:
“Lastly, while field position was critical last week and certainly is critical in any game, the Wildcats must play a clean and disciplined game. If the Wildcats can play a relatively penalty-free game, their chances of picking up a key road win increase.”
This proved true and then some, thanks to some uncharacteristic penalties from the home team.
While there were a couple missed coverages defensively and a few mixups offensively, Arizona earned a decided advantage in the discipline category.
The Wildcats were penalized one time for five yards, and that penalty (offside/too many men on the field) was effectively on the defensive coaching staff for rotating personnel while Colorado did not substitute and was running tempo.
Credit has to be given to coaches and players alike for cleaning up the penalties and handling the challenges that come with playing in a tough road environment.
On the other side, Colorado was flagged eight times for 85 yards. Entering the game, the Buffaloes were the third-least penalized team in the Pac-12, averaging only 43 yards per game.
Bonus: Hydration and Conditioning (All phases, four quarters)
Nothing more needs to be said here. Once again, Arizona was physically and mentally conditioned to execute for four quarters.
This has been a decided advantage in the last three games, especially defensively as the Wildcats have not allowed a fourth quarter touchdown. The overall fourth-quarter scoring against Texas Tech, UCLA and Colorado: 29-3. And on Saturday, Colorado managed only 49 yards on 16 offensive plays in the fourth quarter.
Get the latest content from Dry Heat Sports by following on Facebook (@DryHeatSportsAZ), Twitter (@DryHeatSportsAZ) and subscribing below.
You can also follow Blair’s personal Twitter account @BlairWillisUA.
Better frame that final score prediction. Well done!