Let me preface my first Arizona football game prediction by saying I am likely going to pick the Wildcats to win every week. I am too recently connected to the program to not believe in the team each week as I did for the last decade when I was in that locker room with those guys win or lose.
However, I will always outline the key challenges, concerns and opportunities the team faces every week. From that standpoint, I think my weekly Arizona football game previews will be worthwhile even for those weeks when the Wildcats could be big underdogs.
To kick off the 2019 season, Arizona is not a big underdog. Instead, the Wildcats are favored by 11 points, which may seem high to some that continue to question Arizona’s defense and are concerned with Hawai’i’s offense.
In reality, the line is probably about right. The Wildcats led the Pac-12 in total offense a year ago, while the Rainbow Warriors surrendered a ton of yards. Arizona was also on the short end of several close games, suggesting it may not have been as bad as its 5-7 record suggested a year ago. But, this is a big game in front of the home crowd for Hawai’i, so Arizona will have to play well to prevail.
As it stands, last night I detailed my keys and questions for Arizona’s offense and defense, respectively, heading into Saturday’s game. The condensed versions of my analysis is below with a final score prediction.
The Wildcats will win if…
Chris McAlister returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown. Oh, that was 1998. Still, I’ll like Arizona’s chances if history repeats itself.
On a serious note, Arizona should win if it is the most physical and disciplined team Saturday night. The offensive line needs to assert itself early, giving the Wildcats the ability to run the football and letting a healthy Khalil Tate get comfortable. Establishing the ground game will give Tate time to settle in and not put pressure on the passing attack with a young receiving corps. If J.J. Taylor and the running backs find some room early, you have to like the Wildcats’ chances to move the football consistently. On the defensive side, Arizona must play fast and physical, getting as many players as possible to the ball every play. Depth and conditioning should be better than it was a year ago, and the Wildcats must use this to their advantage. A couple turnovers (or more) will go a long way to getting the season off on the right foot.
Arizona will lose if…
The offense sputters early and the defense yields big plays. Momentum plays a big factor in football, and Hawai’i is a dangerous team when it can play with confidence. If the Rainbow Warriors can get the ball to their playmakers in space, and the Wildcats miss tackles or get beat in coverage, it will be a long day. This will especially be true if Arizona is unable to pressure quarterback Cole McDonald and create turnovers. Offensively, the Wildcats need to get things rolling early. They can win in a shootout, but playing catchup on the road is not a recipe for success against a Hawai’i team with everything to gain and nothing to lose.
How I think (hope?) it plays out…
Many are probably expecting a shootout, but I actually think the defenses could surprise early on. Emotions will be running high at the start, but the team that can settle in and execute its gameplan the quickest will have the first advantage. Each side is surely going to have new looks to neutralize the weapons each offense possesses. However, I think Arizona has too many offensive weapons to be slowed down for long. Khalil Tate will make a couple plays either with his legs or his arm, and the Wildcats’ offense will relax and develop confidence throughout. Defensively, Arizona may be surprised with a few wrinkles early, but an older, deeper and more talented unit hunkers down as the game goes on, opening the door for the Wildcats to lean on a steady rushing attack to pull away.
Prediction: Arizona 38, Hawai’i 20
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We’ve all got to be asking ourselves: how do you force six turnovers and still lose a football game? Anybody else tired of being in embarrassment?