We are closing in on the 48-hour mark in the countdown to kickoff, so it is time to break down the keys and questions leading into the Arizona football season-opener at Hawai’i this Saturday night.
Below I have listed three keys and three questions for Arizona’s offensive and defensive units, respectively. On Friday, I will post my game predictions (including a final score) and then see how things shake out Saturday at Aloha Stadium.
Let’s get started with the keys and questions for coordinator Noel Mazzone and the Wildcat offense. (Note: You can jump to the keys and questions for coordinator Marcel Yates and the Arizona defense here.)
Three Keys: Offense
1. Fast Start
Much of last season, it was feast or famine for the Arizona offense. If the Wildcats got off to a good start moving the ball, there was a good chance they would win the game. Conversely, if the offense sputtered out of the gates, it was going to be a long day.
I took a look at Arizona’s first quarter possessions last season and discovered some startling results.
In the Wildcats’ five wins, they averaged 6.2 yards per play on first quarter possessions (all plays included in a drive that started in the first quarter). That resulted in an average of 36 yards per drive, including four touchdowns and four made field goals. Even drives that did not result in points usually resulted in moving the chains and helping field position. There were only four three-and-outs on the 17 first quarter possessions with three of them coming in the win against Colorado (Arizona scored 26 points in second quarter).
However, Arizona’s first six losses had strikingly opposite results (the ASU game not included in this breakdown).
In the first six losses, the offense averaged 3.5 yards per play on first quarter possessions. That resulted in an average of 17 yards per drive including just one score (touchdown at Washington State). Otherwise, nine of the 19 first quarter drives resulted in a three-and-out.
While some drives included above may have carried over to the second quarter, the cumulative first quarter scoring was telling last season: Opponents 94, Arizona 51.
Breaking that down to all wins and losses: Arizona outscored foes 34-17 in the first quarter of its five wins, while being outscored 77-17 in the opening quarter of all seven losses. The 17 points mustered in the losses came in the final two contests (WSU and ASU), otherwise the Wildcats did not score a first quarter point in the first five losses.
More than anything, this tells me the offense too often put pressure on the defense to keep the Wildcats in the game. Even if drives don’t result in points, picking up first downs, flipping field position and giving the defense time to rest and make adjustments is critical.
2. Finishing Drives
Last season, Arizona led the Pac-12 in total offense (457.7 yards per game) and rushing offense (202.4), while ranking third in scoring offense (31.3 points per game). However, the Wildcats ranked next-to-last in the conference in red zone touchdown percentage (51.1 percent).
This has been an area of concern stressed by the coaching staff during the offseason from spring ball to preseason camp. Too many red zone drives resulted in field goals or no points at all.
That must change in 2019 with the first test coming against Hawai’i. The Rainbow Warriors ranked No. 98 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage defense, surrendering a touchdown 67.7 percent of the time.
If the Wildcats could cash in two-thirds of their red zone drives for touchdowns, that would be noted improvement. But consider Washington State (78 percent) and Oregon (75 percent) paced the Pac-12 in this category a year ago. Arizona was close to that threshold two season ago, scoring touchdowns on 72 percent of red zone drives in 2017 (up from 56 percent in 2016).
3. Protect the Football
With a senior quarterback and veteran running backs, Arizona must protect the football in 2019. The Wildcats were in the bottom half of the league for turnovers lost a season ago, with 10 interceptions and nine fumbles. The overall numbers weren’t terrible considering 19 total turnovers was about average for FBS teams.
However, Arizona has not finished in the top five of the Pac-12 for fewest turnovers lost since 2013. That season, the Wildcats were tied with two other schools for fourth-fewest. No other season in the past decade has produced a better finish in that category.
Suffice it say, protecting the football would be a much-welcomed thing for the Wildcats. And that is why head coach Kevin Sumlin and Co. have preached to their squad that more games are lost than one. If Arizona protects the football against Hawai’i, I like its chances.
Three Keys: Defense
1. Force Turnovers (Plural)
Despite making strides in a few areas a season ago, Arizona’s defense failed to create enough turnovers. The unit ranked outside the top 100 among all FBS teams with 15 turnovers gained, including just five total in the team’s seven losses. Meanwhile, Hawai’i was a little careless with the football last year, giving it away 21 total times.
For Arizona, causing turnovers has been a make-or-break phenomenon in Marcel Yates’ three seasons as defensive coordinator. The Wildcats are 11-4 when they force two or more turnovers in a game. However, the team struggles to a 4-18 record when they fail to register multiple turnovers.
This will be something to keep an eye on Saturday, as Arizona has tallied just three turnovers over its last three season openers. All three came against an outmatched NAU squad in 2017, while the Wildcats came up empty in the turnover category during losses to BYU in 2016 and 2018, respectively.
2. Get Off The Field
Whether the Wildcats force turnovers or not, getting off the field on third downs will be critical. This is an area that Yates’ defenses have shown steady improvement in each of his three seasons. In 2016, opponents converted 53 percent of their third down opportunities. That success lowered to 47 percent in 2017 and fell to 41 percent last season. Still, Arizona ranked No. 88 nationally in third defense.
On the flip side, Hawai’i struggled mightily to move the chains on third down. The Rainbow Warriors converted only 33 percent of their third downs, ranking No. 117 in FBS.
However, stopping Hawai’i on third down is not good enough. Head coach Nick Rolovich rolls the dice with the best of them, evidenced by the Rainbow Warriors going for it on fourth down an astounding 38 times. Only two FBS teams went for it more last season.
So how did Arizona perform on fourth downs a season ago? Opponents converted 61 percent of their attempts, which ranked No. 99 in the country.
Over the last three season openers, Arizona’s defense has not held an opponent under 42 percent on third downs. The Wildcats better be improved in third/fourth down defense not only this week, but throughout the season, if they want to take the next jump under Yates.
3. Pressure the QB
By now, most Arizona fans are familiar with Hawai’i quarterback Cole McDonald. He had a breakout season a year ago, throwing for nearly 3,900 yards and 37 touchdowns. He can also pull the ball down and move the chains with his legs. Make no mistake, McDonald is a gritty, talented player and, like Arizona with the Khalil Tate, the Rainbow Warriors’ success will largely depend on his performance.
Thus, Arizona must pressure McDonald to take him out of his rhythm passing game. Last season, Hawai’i finished second-to-last among 130 FBS teams by allowing 3.29 sacks per game. To exploit this, the Wildcats will need strong man coverage to disrupt the quick game, forcing McDonald to move on to his second and third options. Then it will be up to Arizona’s front four to create push, keep containment and get McDonald to the ground. I would expect to see a handful of calculated blitzes from safeties or corners to speed up McDonald’s decision-making as well.
The question for the Wildcats is can get they get to McDonald. A year ago, Arizona totaled only 23 sacks, ranking No. 91 in the nation. Like turnovers, Yates’ defense has been slow out of the gates to establish pressure. The unit has registered only three sacks combined over the last three season openers, which includes two against NAU in 2017. Additionally, Arizona did not record a sack last season until its third game of the year.
If Arizona can make McDonald uncomfortable and force him go to his second and third options, then the better the chances are for third down stops and turnovers. The Wildcats simply have to be better in these areas than they have been to start recent seasons.
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Good work!
Thank you!
I like our offense matching up against their defense in a lot of ways. I think if we focus on establishing the run and get some of the young receivers involved in the short passing game to build confidence we’ll either sustain long click-eating drives, or we’ll have a breakout play or two against an overmatched defense. Their size on both lines means that rushing in the middle of the field in the red zone will likely be the toughest thing to execute for us based on our past performance there. I predict that we’ll move very consistently between the 20s, but I’m really watching to see if we’ve fixed our red zone offensive woes from last season. Another offensive thought: we really don’t need Tate to try and break off home runs in this game. If he can keep plays alive with his legs and pick up 5-7 yards when the WRs are covered on intermediate routes, I don’t think Hawai’i can keep up with us. We just need to sustain drives.
Defensively, I really have no idea what to expect. We’ll basically be in Nickel the entire game against a run and shoot offense. If our cornerbacks are as improved as we’ve been led to believe, I would play man on the 4 WRs with help over the top from a single deep safety, and one of our two LBs as a spy on the RB with the other LB in QB shadow/contain; and a 4-man rush from the line complimented by an occasional blitz. If we can’t get pressure off of that rush package (platooning our now relatively deep DL), we’re going to need to gamble a bit more. The challenge with the run and shoot is that every route eventually opens up and gets free. It’s like backyard pickup football. If the QB’s eyes are downfield and he has more than about 3 seconds to see/think without scrambling, he’ll find an open route in someone’s tree. Defending this offense basically comes down to press-man keeping up with WRs, and a pass rush that makes the QB move and throw on the run.
My personal benchmarks for success:
UA Offense: produces 400+ yards and at least 35 points
UA Defense: holds Hawaii to 350 or fewer yards and 28 or fewer points.
Good stuff, Greg. You make some excellent points. It’s going to be fun to watch because you never have any idea what to expect in Game 1 until the guys hit the field. From there, we start to get a feel for what we have to work with. Appreciate you sharing your thoughts!