Close Calls Could Lead to Cats’ Breakthrough in 2019

It is no secret that good teams find a way to win close games.

Close games often make or break seasons. Close games send a team to a bowl or keep it home for the holidays. Close games take teams to championships or send their coach packing looking for another job.

Arizona is hoping its fortunes in close games turn around this season.

Kevin Sumlin’s first season as Arizona’s head coach produced a half-dozen games decided by one possession (eight points or fewer margin). The Wildcats won just two of those games, beating California (24-17) and Colorado (42-34), though the latter was never really in jeopardy late in the game (UA ran out the clock over the last five minutes). Otherwise, there were four highly disappointing outcomes, none more so than the first (BYU) and certainly last (ASU).

There are no moral victories in football and a loss hurts whether it is by one point or 50. However, when evaluating the strength of a team, sometimes close losses can indicate a team was closer to a better season than the record may indicate. Conversely, teams that win a bunch of close games may not be as strong as their winning record suggests.

Phil Steele is one of the biggest believers in using close wins and losses as an indicator of team strength. He identified five “close games” for the Wildcats in 2018, likely not including the eight-point win over CU on his list. That left Arizona just 1-4 in close games using his metric, resulting in a +3 for net close losses. Only four teams (North Carolina, Nebraska, Arkansas and Western Kentucky) had a worse margin than the Wildcats, with each finishing +4 for net close losses.

According to Steele’s preseason magazine, teams with a net close loss total of +3 or more are very likely to have a same or stronger record the following season. In fact, last season, 10 of the 11 teams coming off a +3 net close loss season finished with better records in 2018. The team that didn’t improve the overall record had the same record.

Historically, this trend holds true, too. Steele’s magazine has tracked this for the last 18 years. During that span, nearly 80-percent of teams that suffer three net close losses will bounce back with the same or better record the following year. That includes 91 (out of 138) teams improving a record.

So will the Wildcats turn things around and win close games in the 2019 (see my schedule breakdown here)?

That remains to be seen, but it has been a strong focus all offseason for the program. Sumlin often references a phrase that “more games are lost than won”, which is an interesting perspective that I believe holds true in the game of football.

It is incredibly hard to win a football game, especially a close one. Thus, often there are plays or situations spread throughout a game that lead to a team losing a close game instead of winning it.

Let’s take a look at Arizona’s four close losses last season and identify key plays that left the Wildcats on the wrong side of the scoreboard in 2018.

Game 1: BYU 28, Arizona 23

The Key Play: In any close loss, there are a handful of plays you can turn to and ask “what if?”. For me, there was one critical play that completely flipped the momentum of this game in favor of BYU. After a slow start, Arizona settled in and took a 10-7 lead into halftime. The Cougars had the ball to open the second half when the Wildcats forced a third-and-12 near midfield. Arizona pressured quarterback Tanner Magnum into an ill-advised throw, and it appeared safety Isaiah Hayes may have a chance at an interception. Instead the ball deflected off his hands and into the arms of receiver Dylan Collie for a big third down conversion. BYU took the lead with a touchdown on the next play and dominated much of the second half, before UA rallied late. There is no saying what would have happened if Hayes intercepted or knocked down the pass, but it certainly would have prevented one BYU score while the Cats maintained their lead. In a five-point game, that is pivotal enough to look back on and ask “what it?”.

If the Cats Won: The Kevin Sumlin era would have started off smoothly, and the outlook for the rest of the season would have been much more optimistic even with a difficult road trip the following week. Arizona would have entered conference play with a 2-1 record (instead of a 1-2 mark), meaning only four conference wins would be needed for a bowl. The schedule sent the Cats to Corvallis to kick off conference play, so Sumlin’s squad would likely have been 3-1 overall awaiting a visit from USC on Sept. 29. Which brings us to…

Game 5: USC 24, Arizona 20

The Key Play: In a game that was dominated by USC en route to a 24-0 lead, Arizona surged back with 20 unanswered second-half points and had an onside kick attempt with 1:38 remaining. But if the Cats were to steal this one, they needed to stem the tide much earlier in the game. Trailing 10-0, Arizona’s defense forced the Trojans into a fourth-and-two at the UA 26-yardline. USC chose to go for it instead of kicking a field goal, and that proved pivotal as Aca’Cedric Ware broke off a 26-yard touchdown run for a three-score lead at 17-0. If the Wildcats could have gotten a stop, it would have given them a chance to gain momentum earlier in the contest. As it was, a missed field goal before halftime left Arizona trailing 17-0, a margin that was expanded to 24-0 when Ware converted a short third down carry into a 69-yard score early in the third period.

If the Cats Won: Even with a disappointing start to the season, a win here would have pushed the Wildcats above .500 overall and that BYU loss would have been in the rearview mirror. More importantly, Arizona would have been 2-0 in conference play, a record that would have improved to 3-0 after a win against Cal a week later.

Game 8: UCLA 31, Arizona 30

The Key Play: There are so many plays in this game that it is hard to pick just one. It would be easy to go with the J.J. Taylor fumble at the 1-yardline that looked to be a sure touchdown. Or perhaps a Rhett Rodriguez interception deep in UCLA territory. Instead, I’ll take a play late in the contest when Arizona could have regained the lead. Trailing 31-27, the Cats marched – or bulldozed – their way from their own 26 down to the UCLA 11-yardline. Eight of the nine plays had been runs between the two-headed monster of Taylor and Gary Brightwell (both went over 100 yards in the game). But when facing a third-and-four at the 11, the Cats went to the air and Rodriguez’s pass to Shawn Poindexter was incomplete. With over five minutes left in the game, UA settled for a field goal, leaving a 31-30 deficit. The Wildcats never got the ball back. Wilson Speight, the backup quarterback, and the Bruins converted three third downs and held the ball for the final five minutes. Included was a defensive holding penalty against the Cats that resulted in one of the third down conversions. Hindsight is always 20-20, but looking back to UA’s final possession, giving the ball to Brightwell or Taylor twice deep in UCLA territory may have been the better decision than passing and settling for a field goal.

Game 12: ASU 41, Arizona 40

The Key Play: It is a common theme, but yet another game with so many plays to consider. There was the two-point conversion decisions by the coaching staff, an interception thrown by Khalil Tate and the botched handoff from Tate to Taylor in the fourth quarter. The final two turnovers directly led to the ASU’s final nine points, and two points were potentially left on the board with the two-point conversion decisions. Of course, there was a missed last-minute field goal try, too. However, I will go back to where the momentum first began to flip. Arizona was leading 40-21 late in third quarter. The stadium was rocking and the Sun Devils were on the verge of getting blown out. The Cats had Manny Wilkins reeling, and Herm Edwards knew his team was on the ropes. ASU went for it on fourth-and-eight at the UA 36-yardline, and Wilkins scampered 13 yards for a first down. It kept the drive alive as the third quarter ended. A few minutes later, the Sun Devils kicked a field goal to get within two possessions (16 points). From there, we don’t want to remember the rest.

If the Cats Won: This is obvious. The Wildcats would have been 6-6 overall, finished with a winning conference record and gone on to a bowl game in Sumlin’s first season. Of course, the Territorial Cup would be on display in the Lowell-Stevens Football Facility and every Arizona fan would have come into 2019 with a more optimistic outlook. Instead, the gut-wrenching feeling everyone experienced last November lingers.

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