When the College Football Playoff revealed its initial rankings last week, the top 10 teams selected by the committee were the same group of teams in my National Top 10. While we both had Ohio State and LSU in the No. 1 and No. 2 slots, respectively, I did have some differences in the placements of the rest of the top 10.
There were only slight differences to the order of teams, but for some distinct reasons – at least from mt perspective. The Committee liked Alabama and Penn State in the third and fourth positions, whereas my rankings placed Clemson at No. 3. The Crimson Tide were my fourth team, which meant Penn State was left out of my initial top 4. The Committee ranked the Nittany Lions in that coveted fourth spot.
While I picked Penn State to win at Minnesota, I was not sold that the Nittany Lions would match up with the four teams above them. After a loss to Minnesota, I feel better about that line of thinking, thus the Nittany Lions take a tumble this week out of my National Top 10. They’ll surely fall Tuesday night in the second edition of the CFP Rankings.
LSU’s win over Alabama was yet another impressive victory for Ed Orgeron and the Tigers. If basing things off the best victories, LSU would be a clear No. 1. However, I am still more impressed with the overall quality of play this season from Ohio State. The Buckeyes will have to prove that down the stretch with key games against Penn State and Michigan.
Clemson, which routed N.C. State over the weekend, remains comfortably in my third spot. The Tigers’ lack the big game victories, but they have beaten Texas A&M and face another SEC team, rival South Carolina, to end the regular season. While the Aggies and Gamecocks are not the cream of the crop in the SEC, those are sturdy non-conference tests. You can’t hold a bad ACC Conference against Clemson when considering their strength of schedule. Outside of one bad stretch against North Carolina, Clemson has controlled games about as convincingly as anyone in the country, and they’ve won 25 consecutive games overall.
The big question this week is who gets the fourth spot in the rankings? I am keeping Alabama there, for now. Yes, the Crimson Tide lost as a home favorite, but they did so to a team I felt was better than them. I also feel that Alabama would beat any of the other teams vying the fourth spot, including SEC rival Georgia. The Bulldogs have a must-win game against Auburn this week, and the Crimson Tide end the regular season with Auburn. So, this will sort itself out on the coming weeks.
Next up are the two one-loss Pac-12 schools, Oregon and Utah. Both were on a bye last week and both have manageable schedules remining before a potential clash in the Pac-12 Championship game. I have positioned the Utes ahead of the Ducks because I think Utah has been more consistently balanced, but it’s really a coin flip. The Committee debuted Oregon one spot ahead of Utah.
Below these teams, 1-loss Oklahoma will have the opportunity to remain in contention even if the Sooners nearly blew a game against Iowa State. Now they head to Waco, Texas, to face unbeaten Baylor. The Bears have not been impressive in several games this season, but at 9-0, can now make their claim for serious consideration.
Similarly, Minnesota is undefeated, but the Golden Gophers put a marquee win on their resume with the win over Penn State. That win, plus the fact Minnesota has steadily improved all season long, earns them a spot in my National Top 10 over Baylor. I’ll be interested to see where the Committee puts these teams. Baylor has the edge last week at No. 12, while Minnesota was down at No. 17.
While we have just three weeks remaining in the regular season, we cannot lose focus of the significance the conference championship games will have for all of these teams. Losing at that stage of the season, regardless of who it was against, has not been a good formula to get to the playoff., as you can see below.
Let’s go ahead and take a look at the National Top 10 and Pac-12 Power Rankings for Week 12.
National Top 10 Power Rankings
1. Ohio State (9-0, 6-0
Big 10 East)
Last Week: Won vs. Maryland, 73-14
Next Game: Saturday at Rutgers
It’s clear to most that, right now, LSU and Ohio State are the top two teams in the country. I still like how consistent and complete the Buckeyes have been this season, but they’ll need to prove it in their big games to end the season (Penn State/at Michigan).
2. LSU (9-0, 5-0 SEC West)
Last Week: Won at Alabama, 46-41
Next Game: Saturday at Ole Miss
The Tigers have the best wins in the country, and Joe Burrow looks like the Heisman front-runner. They shouldn’t have trouble remaining unbeaten before the SEC Championship game, but can they remain in top form?
3. Clemson (10-0, 7-0
ACC Atlantic)
Last Week: Won at N.C. State, 55-10
Next Game: Saturday vs. Wake Forest
Clemson closes out ACC conference play this week against Wake Forest, which has been good but not great this season. The Tigers are heavily favored to run the table, including in the ACC Championship game, and if they do, they’ll be in the CFB Playoff.
4. Alabama (8-1, 5-1 SEC
West)
Last Week: Lost vs. LSU, 46-41
Next Game: Saturday at Mississippi State
Alabama lost to a better team. It’s that simple. Whether the Crimson Tide can claw back into the CFB Playoff race will depend largely on scenarios outside their control. For now, they’re probably the best one-loss team out there, but other teams around them in the polls will have a chance to make their case before it’s all said and done.
5. Georgia (8-1, 5-1 SEC
East)
Last Week: Won vs. Missouri, 27-0
Next Game: Saturday at Auburn
The Dawgs can make their case to creep back into the top four with a win this week at Auburn. But that dismal effort against South Carolina earlier this year still lingers.
6. Utah (8-1, 5-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday vs. UCLA
The Utes don’t face a team with a winning record (as of today) the rest of the regular season. However, should they go on to face a 1-loss Oregon team in the Pac-12 Championship, it should position them for strong consideration for the CFP Playoff.
7. Oregon (8-1, 6-0
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday 16 vs. Arizona
Oregon was ranked ahead of Utah in the initial CFP Rankings released last week. The Ducks need to continue playing well, and it wouldn’t hurt if Auburn knocked off Georgia this week.
8. Oklahoma (8-1, 5-1 Big
12)
Last Week: Won vs. Iowa State, 42-41
Next Game: Saturday at Baylor
The Sooners escaped disaster last week, but now face another stiff test at undefeated Baylor. I’m not putting the Bears in the top 10 (still can’t get over their fortune in avoiding a loss to Texas Tech), but they’ll be here next week if they beat OU.
9. Florida (8-2, 5-2 SEC
East)
Last Week: Won vs. Vanderbilt, 56-0
Next Game: Saturday at Missouri
The Gators haven’t been perfect this season, but they’re very good. Should they win against slumping Missouri and dysfunctional Florida State, it will be a 10-win regular season in Gainsville.
10. Minnesota (9-0, 6-0
Big Ten East)
Last Week: Won vs. Penn State, 31-26
Next Game: Saturday at Iowa
The Gophers were impressive on the big stage against Penn State, which is why they play themselves into the Top 10 here this week instead of Baylor. Whether or not Minnesota is here to stay remains to be seen. Games against Iowa and Wisconsin remain.
Dropped Out: #5 Penn State – Lost at Minnesota, 31-26
Pac-12 Power Rankings
South Division
1. Utah (8-1, 5-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday vs. UCLA
We wouldn’t have said this a month ago, but the Bruins may be the toughest test remaining for Kyle Whittingham’s squad. Two of the last three games are home at Rice-Eccles Stadium.
2. USC (6-4, 5-2 Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Arizona State, 31-26
Next Game: Saturday at California
The Trojans refuse to fold and they are still within reach of winning the South should Utah surprisingly slip up. First things first, USC must win against a Cal team that appears to be punching back.
3. UCLA (4-5, 4-2
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday at Utah
Can Chip Kelly’s Bruins shake up the South with an upset on the road? A win here and not only are we talking about UCLA’s division title chances (they would need to win out), but USC’s, too.
4. Arizona State (5-4, 2-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost vs. Arizona State, 31-26
Next Game: Saturday at Oregon State
A sleepy first-quarter and the absence of QB Jayden Daniels was too much to overcome against USC. Winning in Corvallis won’t be easy, but it would secure a bowl eligibility.
5. Arizona (4-5, 2-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday at Oregon
Even with a bye week, a tough stretch only gets tougher for Kevin Sumlin & Co. The Wildcats play top-10 teams in consecutive weeks, then end the year with the Territorial Cup.
6. Colorado (4-6, 2-5 Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Stanford, 16-13
Next Game: Nov. 23 vs. Washington
The Buffaloes snapped a losing skid with a physical effort against Stanford. Things don’t get easier, though, with matchups against Washington and Utah to close out Mel Tucker’s first season.
North Division
1. Oregon (8-1, 6-0
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday vs. Arizona
The Ducks path to the playoff begins Saturday against Arizona. That’s probably not a good thing for the Wildcats, who have had trouble stopping anyone since September.
2. Washington (6-4, 3-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won at Oregon State, 19-7
Next Game: Nov. 23 at Colorado
It’s been an up and down year for the Huskies, but a bye week comes before two winnable games to close out the season against Colorado and Washington State. An 8-win regular season is still within reach.
3. Stanford (4-5, 3-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at Colorado, 16-13
Next Game: Saturday at Washington State
Just when it appeared the Cardinal were back on track, they stubbed their toe against a struggling Colorado squad. The closing stretch takes them to Pullman this week, then back home for California and Notre Dame.
4. California (5-4, 2-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Washington State, 33-20
Next Game: Saturday vs. USC
The Golden Bears are back! They surprisingly put together some offense to upend Washington State and now may be able to bring back QB Chase Garbers, who has missed nearly two months of action.
5. Oregon State (4-5, 3-3
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost vs. Washington, 19-7
Next Game: Saturday vs. Arizona State
After promising performances, Oregon State couldn’t do anything well offensively against Washington. If the Beavers are to reach bowl eligibility, they probably need to do it with wins the next two against ASU and Washington State.
6. Washington State (4-5,
1-5 Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at California, 33-20
Next Game: Saturday vs. Stanford
Mike Leach is neither happy with Pac-12 officiating nor the toughness of his team. He needs something to change quickly if the Cougs are to go bowling.
View last week’s rankings here.
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