Typically, my mid-week Arizona football feature focuses on what to expect from the opponent, providing a glimpse as to how the Wildcats match up and what opportunities or concerns there may be.
This week, however, I find that difficult, if not unnecessary, to do. Arizona’s biggest concerns are internal, and Oregon’s purpose is much bigger than one game.
Oregon is a well-coached, talented and physical football team. They have an experienced future NFL quarterback, a stout defense and lead the nation in turnover margin. They are ranked No. 6 in the College Football Playoff Rankings, which means they have everything to play for despite being a lock to reach the Pac-12 Championship game. Oh, and they will be at home playing before another raucous Autzen Stadium crowd.
On paper, Saturday night’s Arizona-Oregon game is an epic mismatch. Everything from line play to defensive playmakers to motivation is on the side of the Ducks.
It seems like a decade ago when the Wildcats upset and routed the Ducks in Tucson, 44-15. In reality, that was only 382 days ago.
Since that loss in the desert, the Ducks are 12-2, with their only losses coming by seven points last season at Utah and by six points in the neutral site season-opener against Auburn in August. Otherwise, Oregon has won its 12 games by a collective 458-186, holding opponents to single-digit points in half of those contests.
That is as much as any Arizona fan needs to know about the Ducks. The key questions, from Arizona’s perspective, for Saturday’s game in Eugene all reside closer to home.
- Who is the quarterback?
- Who is healthy on the offensive line?
- What has Chuck Cecil & Co. done with the defense over the bye week?
- Where is this team’s mindset?
- Is it too soon to start thinking about the future?
Let’s break these questions down and try to get a feeling for what they mean this week and beyond.
Who is the quarterback?
Head coach Kevin Sumlin was understandably asked this question at his Monday news conference, and his answer was straightforward, if not obvious: “whoever performs the best” during practice.
While this was partly a gamesmanship response to not tip a hand to Oregon, it sounds very much like the answer to a question a coach is asked in fall camp when a clear-cut starter is not returning.
That is very much the predicament this staff – and team – have been in for a number of weeks, maybe even all the way back to the season opener (QB play was my No. 1 question coming into the year). If not then, certainly after the UCLA game in which Grant Gunnell helped engineer the Wildcats to a victory.
Khalil Tate was a known commodity coming into the year, and the hope was that he would develop his game to a new level from the perspective of understanding the quarterback position. He said all the right things and did all the right things in the off season, but when the live bullets were flying at Hawai’i, it was the same slow start for the Wildcats we had seen a year ago, followed by a great comeback and then a letdown with a costly turnover late in the game.
It was apparent Tate’s understanding of the Noel Mazzone’s offense, in particular the RPO concepts and pass-progressions reads, was not there. The playbook had to be simplified with certain elements reduced or scrapped completely.
That was a short-term solution for a long-term problem that paid off against teams like NAU, Texas Tech and Colorado. But once October arrived and Arizona faced more talented teams, defenses keyed in on tendencies and ultimately committed to an onslaught of pressure and blitzes. We saw the result.
Along the way, we’ve seen what Gunnell is capable of doing even at this early stage of his career. Despite lacking the physical talents of Tate (both running and arm strength), Gunnell has a savvy presence in the pocket and is willing to take a hit. He’s shown ability to work through progressions as a passer and he hasn’t taken extraordinarily long losses when he’s been sacked – either by his holding onto the ball too long or inadequate protection – like Tate has.
Michael Lev at the Arizona Daily Star wrote a fantastic column last week comparing and contrasting Tate and Gunnell in recent games. While not all factors are equal, it is obvious that the younger Gunnell has more than held his own and should give the Wildcats no less opportunity to win than Tate had been doing.
It will be interesting to see who Sumlin and Mazzone send out for the first series on Saturday. My hunch is it will be Gunnell, and that the “whoever performs the best” quote from Monday was to avoid sounding as though the coaches were throwing Tate under the bus. It is also an easy fall back if Gunnell does not play well this Saturday.
No matter who the quarterback is Saturday, Arizona needs a strong performance to have any opportunity of keeping things close in Eugene.
Who is healthy on the offensive line?
Talk about a scary question going into this game!
Arizona had the makings of a very solid offensive line earlier this season, but unfortunately injuries have begun to pile up. Left guard Robert Congel was the first to get banged up (missed Washington game), but he has since returned. The first true blow game when right guard Cody Creason was injured in the Washington game, and he has not played since.
Things got worse against Oregon State when the Wildcats lost both center Josh McCauley and right guard Bryson Cain (starting for Creason) on the same play. Later in the game, left tackle Donovan Laie was banged up.
The status of these players for the short and long term is not known publicly. Should those players not be able to play, that would leave only Congel, tackle/guard Paiton Fears and tackle Edgar Burrola from the original six to seven-man starting rotation going into Saturday’s game.
Steven Bailey (center) and Jon Jacobs (guard) did admirable work as backups to McCauley and Cain during the Oregon State game. It really was impressive how quickly each settled in and allowed the offense to continue racking up yards, and those two should be commended for their readiness.
Still, Arizona would prefer its top talents be available, and certainly it would like more depth in case it has to withstand any additional injuries up front.
Sumlin did say Monday that local Marana product Jordan Morgan will play the rest of the season, meaning he will not pursue a redshirt. Morgan took over for Laie in the Oregon State game, which was his fourth appearance of the season.
What has Chuck Cecil & Co. done with the defense?
Cecil was in a no-win situation taking over defensive coordinator duties without the benefit of the bye week. Now, he has had three practice weeks to work with the defense, so if he has any tricks up his sleeve to implement, we’ll see those on Saturday.
I won’t forget the 2011 UCLA-Arizona game in which Tim Kish was named the interim head coach following the mid-season dismissal of Mike Stoops. Kish utilized a bye week to implement a new defensive look, adopting the double-eagle flex that had been made famous with Arizona’s Desert Swarm defenses. It paid quick dividends, both catching the Bruins off guard, but also giving the Wildcats something simple to learn and be excited about when they took the field.
These types of quick-fixes are a good gimmick for a game or two, but ultimately teams adjust and you are left with the same personnel that got you in the need for change to begin with.
In the Oregon State game, not much schematically changed for the Wildcats. Unfortunately, the results did not either. I imagine Cecil will be a little quicker with the trigger of pulling players out of the game that aren’t sticking to their assignments and hustling to the football.
To be a good defensive football team, you need all 11 players playing as one. That collective effort includes playing sound in assignments, communicating, and playing fast, physical to get numbers to the football. The Wildcats showed flashes of this earlier in the season, but by and large there have been too many breakdowns in assignments, miscommunications in coverage and simply not enough players playing hard to the whistle. This is a lethal combination when you still lack the overall desired size and depth at this level.
Sumlin indicated at Monday’s press conference that we may see some unfamiliar faces on the field in the coming weeks. Players that were tabbed as not ready to play coming out of camp now have had the benefit of a dozen in-season practice weeks: nine games weeks and three bye weeks. The new redshirt rule allows players to play in up to four games, so look for a few of these new faces on the field this weekend.
Where is this team’s mindset?
This is an impossible question to answer, but let’s hope this team comes out fighting the final three games of the season. The team that took the field and walked off in defeat against Oregon State was not the Arizona team I expected to see that day or had seen often over the years.
There is nothing to lose playing Oregon and Utah (okay, maybe the Pac-12 could lose a lot) the next two weeks, so the team can leave everything on the field. Then, it’s on to the Territorial Cup – and we know what that means.
The mindset of the team ties directly into my final question …
Is it too soon to start thinking about the future?
No. For Arizona football, it’s never too soon.
Arizona football is not in a great place right now, and it is going to take a lot of hard work to take the leap that everyone wants. Some of the results this season have been disappointing, and many expected a better product on the field in Sumlin’s second season.
From that standpoint, the coaches have some personnel decisions to make. There are a number of players on the roster that have played a lot of football the last year or two but they have not gotten better. Assessing the reasons why is critical for the coaches, but what should be clear by now is that consistently playing the same players and expecting different results is not the recipe for turning things around.
There are a lot of young and inexperienced players on the roster who will factor into big games next year and the year(s) after. Those players deserve the opportunity to learn, grow and make mistakes now. The guys in front of them are already making mistakes, and progress is not being made.
Ultimately, the Wildcats need a locker room full of guys who are hungry to win. That takes a personal commitment and willingness to hold teammates accountable.
There have been some very impressive individual performances the last few weeks, none more so than a guy like J.J. Taylor. He – and others – deserve to be surrounded by guys that play just as hard as they do. Every play. Every game.
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