ICYMI: What to Expect From Stanford
For 10 years, I traveled to every Arizona football road game. I was fortunate to see the Wildcats win in every Pac-12 Stadium except two: Husky Stadium and Stanford Stadium.
I was 0-4 at each stop, with a couple close. The Nick Foles-Delashaun Dean kick-six in Seattle will always be an unforgettable loss, but so, too, will the overtime loss at Stanford in Rich Rodriguez’s first season when Matt Scott orchestrated one of the best quarterbacked games I have seen at Arizona.
That game in 2012 was my third trip to The Farm. The previous game, in 2010, was an ABC Primetime game when Foles led the Wildcats into Stanford Stadium against a nationally-ranked Andrew Luck squad. That one was all Cardinal.
My first trip was in 2008, when the Wildcats were off to a 4-1 start. Stanford was still a year away from its rise as a contender in the Pac-12, but the Cardinal somehow held off the Wildcats for a 24-23 win on a sleepy Saturday afternoon before an announced crowd of 30,869.
Two years earlier, before I had begun working full-time for Arizona Athletics, Arizona went into Stanford Stadium and won, 20-7. It remains one of those superlative games that 13 years later is still listed in the Arizona Football Weekly Game Notes, which I used to author in my previous job.
Flip to Page 37 in this week’s notes linked above and you will find something that reads:
WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME AN OPPONENT…
Rushed for negative yards … at Stanford (19- -6), 2006
Yes, the last time Arizona won at Stanford was the last time the Wildcats held an opponent to negative rushing yards in a game. The Cardinal carried 19 times for minus-6 yards that day, and mustered only 52 yards of offense.
The quarterbacks that day for the Wildcats were Adam Austin and Kris Heavner; Willie Tuitama was out for medical reasons. On the other sideline, T.C. Ostrander was behind center. Indeed, the future days of Foles or Scott vs. Luck were still a ways away.
None of this has anything to do with Saturday’s game except to say it has been a very long time since Arizona has won at Stanford. And, once again, attention will be centered on the quarterbacks.
For Arizona, it’s simple. Khalil Tate is the starter, but his leash is getting shorter. He has to perform well not only for the Wildcats to have a chance to win, but to keep his job. True freshman Grant Gunnell is not redshirting, and he has performed admirably when called upon. The Wildcats are at the point where they can no longer afford to keep trying the same things and expecting different results.
On the other sideline, Stanford has been battered and bruised all season, especially along the offensive line and at its quarterback position. Starter K.J. Costello has missed games from two separate injuries this season, but he seems likely to get the nod this week. When healthy, he is the top option for the Cardinal, who need a competent passing game to open up holes to run the football. When Costello and backup Davis Mills (who is likely out this week) are unavailable, Stanford is very limited.
What we know from Arizona’s perspective is that it has to play better football this week than it has the last two times out. Turning the football over and giving opponents short fields has to stop if the Wildcats are to stop the losing streak on the Farm.
Here’s to hoping my seat on the couch this Saturday is better than my seat in the press box the last four trips to Stanford.
Now, for the keys to the game.
- Win the Turnover Battle (all phases)
- Win Field Position (all phases)
- Stay on Schedule (offense)
- Stop the Run (defense)
- Start Fast (all phases)
The Wildcats will win if …
Khalil Tate and the Arizona offense get off to a strong start, protect the football and force Stanford to play a game of catchup that it does not want to play, especially if starting quarterback K.J. Costello is not 100 percent. This is a game that could surprisingly favor the Wildcats matchup-wise, which is perhaps why Arizona opened as a slight favorite on the Vegas boards (Stanford now a slight favorite). However, the Wildcats must show improvement in several key areas, including protecting the football on offense and in special teams. Both of those not only contribute to the end results on the scoreboard, but directly effect field position, which may be as important in this game as any played all season. The Wildcats do not have to score every possession, but they need to stay on schedule, move the football and be sound in the kicking game. Arizona’s defense has been very strong in the first half of the last two games, but their best performance still awaits them. If they can get help from the offense and kicking game early, there could be chances for a breakout performance and potentially a defensive score. That type of play can go a long way to deciding this type of outcome. Regardless, the Wildcats must play fast and aggressive in all phases, pressuring Stanford out of its comfort zone. The first 15 minutes will be a strong indicator of which team has the upper hand.
The Wildcats will lose if …
Khalil Tate and the Arizona offense get off the a slow, sloppy and scoreless first quarter, and Stanford strikes early behind the return of quarterback K.J. Costello. David Shaw and Co. always have a strong game plan centered around ball security, field position and calculated strikes against the opposition. When that plan comes to fruition early, they are difficult to beat as they deliberately and methodically wear down opponents. Look for Stanford to open up its passing attack early with Costello to identify Arizona’s game plan for coverages, and to eventually set up the run game. Once Shaw sees what can work in the run game, that is when the ball control and field position game take over. Arizona has struggled to win field position and has been careless with the football in recent weeks, which is exactly the recipe the Cardinal want to cook up against anyone. They will continue to pressure Tate and the Wildcats’ offense, and if Arizona can neither run effectively nor get the ball distributed quickly, it will be another frustrating day on the Farm.
The Prediction:
Arizona, 28-23
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