This “What to Expect” must come with a caveat because what the Wildcats can expect depends largely on who is able to play quarterback for Stanford.
The Cardinal are a capable offensive team with their top two options, K.J. Costello and Davis Mills. Costello was the incumbent starter and is an NFL prospect, but he has twice been sidelined with injuries. Stanford took a small step back with Mills filling in, but he was developing quickly and helped orchestrate the upset of Washington earlier this month.
However, with Mills and Costello out, Stanford was forced to go with its third-string quarterback, Jack West, against UCLA. Things did not go well, to say the least.
The quarterback shuffling has been one issue for the Cardinal offense, but so, too, has been the health of the offensive line. Stanford’s line has sustained numerous injuries and has started five different combinations in seven games this season. The lack of consistency and depth has made it difficult to run the ball and protect the quarterback in the passing game, especially the first-time starter, West, a week ago (sacked seven times).
I am not going to go in depth for the What to Expect points of emphasis this week because the game completely changes if Costello or Mills are unable to play (both are questionable). At this point, it would seem there’s a decent chance Costello will be cleared to play by Saturday considering he did participate some in Tuesday’s practice.
With that said, here are some things Arizona must expect regardless of who plays this week.
What to Expect From Stanford’s Offense
Run the Football
Stanford isn’t built quite the same way it was several years back where it could line up and run the ball successfully against anyone. While they will still use some “heavy” personnel packages, they try to spread things out more these days with quite a bit of 11 personnel (one back, one tight end, three receivers). This was effective with Costello late last year and that was the direction they continued on into this season, only to sustain the rash of injuries along the line and at quarterback.
Still, it’s David Shaw and Stanford. They want to be physical and control the pace of the game. That is only magnified if Costello and Mills are out for this game, so Arizona needs to expect the Cardinal to try and establish the run. Stanford did this surprisingly well against Washington, when it ran 43 times for 189 yards (it’s worth noting this was the only game all season in which the Cardinal were able to start the same offensive line in back-to-back weeks).
The top running back is Cameron Scarlett, who earlier in his career was the backup to Christian McCaffrey and Bryce Love. He’s a good all-around back that will get the bulk of the carries.
If Arizona is to win on The Farm, it will start with stopping the run to take away a little bit of the control that Stanford likes to play with.
Big Colby Parkinson
Stanford doesn’t have three pass-catching NFL tight ends on its roster like it did several years back, but it does have one good prospect in Colby Parkinson. At 6-foot-7, he’s a mismatch nightmare and a top target in the passing game in all areas of the field. Because teams have been able to stop the run game more easily, it’s been harder for Parkinson to get his 1-on-1 matchups, especially in the red zone. But he will be a focus of the offense no matter who the quarterback is.
Receivers
As Stanford has seen its rushing numbers decline in recent seasons, there has been more reliance on the passing game and therefore the receivers have become a bigger part of the offense.
There is steady talent at the receiver spots, with the top playmaker being Michael Wilson. The sophomore averages over 12 yards per reception and has three touchdowns this season. Additionally, Connor Wedington and Osiris St. Brown round out the top targets, and both are solid players.
An emerging threat is sophomore Simi Fehoko, who had a big game against the Huskies earlier this month, and has five catches for 126 yards the last two outings.
If Costello or Mills are good to go Saturday, this receiver unit becomes more dangerous because the playbook can expand. If West gets the call, he will probably be more comfortable than he was in the debut against UCLA, but will not be as advanced in making the reads and understanding where to go with the football. Disguising coverages and pressure against West becomes a little easier than it would against the veteran Costello, especially.
What to Expect From Stanford’s Defense
3-4 Base
The Cardinal operate out of a 3-4 base defense that thrives on letting its linebackers flow to the ball and make plays. They are pretty stout against the run, but are coming off a game in which UCLA ran for 263 yards. However, that was the only game this season in which an opponent averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry (6.12).
The 3-4 base does allow Stanford to provide different looks, walking linebackers into gaps on the line or moving them to the edges. The unit thrives when it can create negative yardage plays and put the offense behind the chains because they can vary their looks and pressures. They will look to get after the quarterback, something Arizona should expect from everyone it plays right now.
Secondary
The Cardinal secondary is coached by Duane Akina, who is a familiar name and face to Arizona football.
His unit is young, but talented, and took some lumps early in the season. However, Akina has done an excellent job keeping the spirits of that group high and challenging them to continue improving. There is an energy from this group, despite their inconsistencies on the field.
The top player is cornerback Paulson Adebo, a 6-foot-1 corner that struggled mightily in one-on-one coverage earlier this year. He has bounced back, particularly in the game against Washington.
With that said, this is a young and inconsistent group. They can be caught off guard at times with double moves and other routes that require recognition and communication between safeties and corners. Expect the Cardinal to try and alleviate this concern with pressure on the quarterback to force the ball out quickly.
Speed
Arizona may have an advantage with speed at its skill positions. Stanford struggled against seemingly more athletic playmakers with the Bruins last week (including the quarterback, Dorian Thompson-Robinson), although the Cardinal did match up well at the skill spots with Washington.
Still, the Wildcats are at their best playing in space and using their speed and quickness to make plays. Arizona will need to spread out the second level of the Stanford defense and get quick, decisive decisions from the quarterback to distribute the football. From there, the Wildcats may be able to slip tackles and turn short gains into big plays.
Lastly, playing at tempo is not something Stanford typically likes because they want to limit possessions, so Arizona would be wise to pick up the tempo if it can start moving the football. But getting that initial first down of a drive is critical, and that’s what Stanford will try to stop with its negative yardage plays early in drives.
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