Picks to Click: Week 13

Believe it or not, Week 13 has arrived.

Yes, this is the final full Saturday of college football, with games spread over the Thanksgiving holiday next weekend to close out the regular season.

Our pre-turkey day slate of football this weekend lacks many marquee games, but every game is critical at this point of the season for teams vying for conference championships, bowl eligibility and even College Football Playoff positioning.

The one game that does stand out is No. 9 Penn State traveling to second-ranked Ohio State. The Nittany Lions were on track to enter this game undefeated, but dropped a close game two weeks ago at Minnesota. With a victory, Penn State can climb back into the playoff discussion, but the task won’t be easy in Columbus, Ohio. The Buckeyes have been the most complete team in college football this season, and a win against Penn State could vault them into the top spot of the CFP Rankings heading into another showdown next week at Michigan.

Penn State is currently an 18-point underdog vs Ohio State. In the last 40 years, only seven Top 10 matchups have had a point spread this big. All seven favorites won outright and they went 5-2 ATS. Last was Alabama -18 vs A&M in 2016, won by 19.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 20, 2019

A game not getting much attention is fourth-ranked Georgia hosting No. 24 Texas A&M. The Aggies have taken care of business against lesser competition, but have not fared as well against highly-ranked teams such as Clemson, Auburn and Alabama. Meanwhile, Georgia is the No. 4 team in the CFP Playoff coming off a win against Auburn, but there are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of how firm that position is.

Speaking of Auburn and Alabama, their Iron Bowl showdown comes next Saturday. While each side has a tune up against an FCS team this week, attention will still be on the Crimson Tide to see how the offense looks without Tua Tagovailoa. A convincing effort the next two weeks will keep Nick Saban’s group in the group of one-loss contenders, but Auburn can dash those hopes with a win next week.

Waiting for slip-ups from Georgia and Alabama are a pair of Pac-12 teams, Utah and Oregon. Both travel to the Arizona schools this weekend, with the Ducks facing Herm Edwards’ Sun Devils and the Utes battling Kevin Sumlin’s struggling Wildcats. While both are deservedly big favorites, history hasn’t been kind to these teams. Oregon has suffered recent trouble in the desert (see below), while Utah has lost at least one Pac-12 road game in November each of the last four seasons, including once at Arizona (2015).

Dating back to 2014, Arizona State has been a double digit underdog 11 times. The Sun Devils have won six of them outright and are 9-2 ATS.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) November 21, 2019

Despite five ranked vs. ranked games and several other key games, last week’s Picks to Click produced an impressive 19-2 mark straight up, including 12-9 against the spread and 7-14 against the point totals. The season records now stand at 196-52 straight up, 118-111-2 against the spread and 119-108-4 against the totals.

Now, for this week’s picks.

Week 13 Picks to Click

Associated Press Top 25 Games

Arkansas at #1 LSU
Saturday | 5 p.m. | ESPN
Spread: LSU, -43 | O/U: 69.5
Pick: LSU, 58-20

#9 Penn State at #2 Ohio State
Saturday | 10 a.m. | FOX
Spread: Ohio State, -18.5| O/U: 57
Pick: Ohio State, 38-17

#3 Clemson – Idle  
Last Week: Won vs. Wake Forest, 52-3
Next Game: Nov. 30 at South Carolina

#24 Texas A&M at #4 Georgia
Saturday | 1:30 p.m. | CBS
Spread: Georgia, -13 | O/U: 44
Pick: Georgia, 27-13

Western Carolina at #5 Alabama
Saturday | 10 a.m. | ESPN
Spread: No Line | O/U: No Line
Pick: Alabama, 66-9

#6 Oregon at Arizona State
Saturday | 5:30 p.m. | ABC
Spread: Oregon, -14 | O/U: 52.5
Pick: Oregon, 27-14

#7 Utah at Arizona
Saturday | 8 p.m. | FS1
Spread: Utah, -22.5 | O/U: 57
Pick: Arizona games not picked

TCU at #8 Oklahoma
Saturday | 6 p.m. | FOX
Spread: Oklahoma, -18| O/U: 65
Pick: Oklahoma, 42-25

#10 Florida – Idle
Last Week: Won at Missouri, 23-6
Next Game: Nov. 30 vs. Florida State

#11 Minnesota at Northwestern
Saturday | 10 a.m. | ABC
Spread: Minnesota, -13.5 | O/U: 39.5
Pick: Minnesota, 24-10

#12 Michigan at Indiana
Saturday | 1:30 p.m. | ESPN
Spread: Michigan, -9.5 | O/U: 53
Pick: Michigan, 28-17

Texas at #13 Baylor
Saturday | 1:30 p.m. | FS1
Spread: Baylor, -6 | O/U: 58.5
Pick: Texas, 31-28

Purdue at #14 Wisconsin
Saturday | 2 p.m. | FOX
Spread: Wisconsin, -24.5 | O/U: 48
Pick: Wisconsin, 42-10

Boston College at #15 Notre Dame
Saturday | 12:30 p.m. | NBC
Spread: Notre Dame, -20.5 | O/U: 53.5
Pick: Notre Dame, 28-20

Samford at #16 Auburn
Saturday | 10 a.m. | SECN
Spread: No Line | O/U: No Line
Pick: Auburn, 42-6

Temple at #17 Cincinnati
Saturday | 5 p.m. | ESPN2
Spread: Cincinnati, -10.5 | O/U: 45
Pick: Cincinnati, 27-14

#18 Memphis at South Florida
Saturday | 2 p.m. | ESPNU
Spread: Memphis, -14 | O/U: 59.5
Pick: Memphis, 33-27

Illinois at #19 Iowa
Saturday | 10 a.m. | BTN
Spread: Iowa, -15.5 | O/U: 47.5
Pick: Iowa, 23-16

#20 Boise State at Utah State
Saturday | 8:30 p.m. | CBSSN
Spread: Boise State, -9 | O/U: 52.5
Pick: Utah State, 30-24

#21 SMU at Navy  
Saturday | 1:30 p.m. | CBSSN
Spread: Navy, -3.5 | O/U: 67
Pick: SMU, 37-31

#22 Oklahoma State at West Virginia
Saturday | 10 a.m. | ESPN2
Spread: Oklahoma State, -5.5 | O/U: 54.5
Pick: West Virginia, 30-27

Texas State at #23 Appalachian State
Saturday | 12:30 p.m. | ESPN+
Spread: Appalachian State, -29 | O/U: 51
Pick: Appalachian State, 41-13

Pittsburgh at #25 Virginia Tech
Saturday | 1:30 p.m. | ESPN2
Spread: Virginia Tech, -4 | O/U: 44.5
Pick: Virginia Tech, 24-21

Other Pac-12 Games

UCLA at USC
Saturday | 1:30 p.m. | ABC
Spread: USC, -13 | O/U: 65.5
Pick: USC, 31-20

California at Stanford
Saturday | 2 p.m. | P12N
Spread: Stanford, -1.5 | O/U: 40.5
Pick: Stanford, 20-16

Oregon State at Washington State
Saturday | 7 p.m. | P12N
Spread: Washington State, -10.5| O/U: 76.5
Pick: Washington State, 45-38

Washington at Colorado
Saturday | 8 p.m. | ESPN
Spread: Washington, -14 | O/U: 52.5
Pick: Washington, 35-17

Notes:

• All times listed are MST
• Rankings from the Associated Press Top 25
• Point spread/game totals from http://www.sportsbetting.ag as of Friday at 7 a.m.
• Pac-12 games shaded above in gray

2019 Record (Last Week)

All Games Straight Up: 196-52 (19-2)
All Games ATS: 118-111-2 (12-9)
All Games O/U: 119-108-4 (7-14)

Pac-12 Straight Up: 43-25 (3-1)
Pac-12 ATS: 30-30-1 (3-1)
Pac-12 O/U: 32-27-2 (2-2)

* Arizona games not included

Read: Week 13 Power Rankings

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