It’s Homecoming week, the Wildcats are honoring Dick Tomey and the Desert Swarm era, and, after a midseason coaching staff shakeup, an Arizona legend is taking over at defensive coordinator.
Indeed, there is a lot going on this week in Tucson, and we haven’t even mentioned a Friday evening men’s basketball exhibition game.
However, come 12:30 p.m. Saturday, we will have an important Pac-12 football game on our hands. Suddenly surging Oregon State arrives in the Old Pueblo fresh off a bye week and looking to spoil the festivities of the slumping Wildcats.
Yes, the Beavers have won three of their last five games, including two-straight conference road games at UCLA and California. The recent rise has the folks in Corvallis beginning to think about a possible bowl berth, something head coach Jonathan Smith tried to put an end to this week.
In Tucson, all of the talk has been about this week’s dismissal of two defensive coaches – coordinator Marcel Yates and linebacker’s coach John Rushing – as Kevin Sumlin put his foot down to make it known to all he expects the Wildcats to be winning now.
Moving into the coordinator role is Chuck Cecil, one the program’s all-time greats. If you missed my reaction to this coaching change, you can read it here.
A former NFL defensive coordinator, Cecil has been on Arizona’s staff as a senior defensive analyst for three seasons, which has prevented him from taking an active role coaching on the field in practices and games. Some fans have clamored for him to have an elevated role for several years, and now the opportunity comes.
This has temporally distracted everyone from the quarterback duel between senior Khalil Tate and true freshman Grant Gunnell. After a pair of subpar performances in losses to Washington and USC, Tate split his duties with Gunnell in the loss at Stanford a week ago. Both had critical mistakes in the fourth quarter; Gunnell fumbled and backed the Wildcats out of field goal position, while Tate threw a costly interception.
In his weekly news conference on Monday, Sumlin indicated the quarterbacks will continue to share the duties, though Tate remains the starter. This seems to be the reasonable solution for all parties. Tate’s athletic talents are undeniable, while Gunnell has a bright future ahead of him as a more prototypical pocket passer.
What is interesting in relation to Saturday’s matchup with Oregon State is that the Beavers have pounced on opportunities against backup quarterbacks this season. In the Oct. 5 win at UCLA, the Bruins were without starter Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Two weeks later, California was without its No. 1 starter, Chase Garbers, who had been lost for the season. The Golden Bears started Devon Modster, but were forced to finish with a true freshman, Spencer Brasch, in the 21-17 loss.
Oregon State has also benefitted significantly this season by protecting the football. The Beavers have turned the ball over just two times all season, which leads the nation and is two fewer than the next closest team (out of 130).
Meanwhile, the defense has created just six turnovers, meaning the Beavers’ seven games this season have included only eight combined turnovers. That is three fewer than the next closest FBS team!
To put that in perspective, Arizona has turned the ball over nine times in the last three games alone. The Wildcats are currently sitting at a minus-2 turnover margin this season (13 gained, 15 lost), and their games have seen 28 total turnovers.
When it comes time to put out my weekly game preview with keys and predictions on Friday, you can bet that turnovers will be a critical factor. Can the Wildcats’ finally hang onto the football? Can Cecil’s defense find a way to turnover the Beavers?
We shall see.
For now, let’s take a look at three things to expect from Oregon State’s offense and defense.
What to Expect From Oregon State’s Offense
Protect the Football
This is detailed above quite well, but the Beavers been exceptional when it comes to protecting the football. Again, they have turned it over just twice all season!
It starts with 6-foot-7 senior quarterback Jake Luton (yes, he is 6-foot-7). The savvy veteran is a confident presence in a clean pocket who delivers a good ball all over the field, but more importantly he makes the right decisions. He has thrown just one interception all year despite a completion percentage of only 59 percent (No. 10 in Pac-12).
At the same time, the Oregon State ballcarriers (be them running backs, receivers, returners, quarterbacks, etc.) have not lost a fumble all season. They are on course to potentially set or break multiple NCAA records, which was detailed last week in The Oregonian.
Balance
Oregon State is a very well-balanced offense that maximizes the skills of its playmakers. The offense is spread-based with heavy usage of a tight end, but uses multiple personnel packages, including sets with two or three tight ends. The quarterback will operate out of both the shotgun and from under center.
The Beavers have run the ball 241 times this season and passed it on 250 occasions. This run-pass mix allows them to keep defenses off balance and set up plays on pretty much any down. It also makes them very hard to defend on third downs, evidenced by the fact Oregon State leads the Pac-12 with a 46.9 conversion percentage this season.
Play action is a big part of the offense in any situation, including first-and-10 or third-and-short. To the latter, the Beavers also aren’t afraid to go for it on fourth down if they miss on third down. Oregon State is 10-for-14 this season on fourth downs, tied for the most such conversions in the conference.
The key to disrupting the Beavers’ attack is to affect Luton in the passing game. When he is comfortable in the pocket, the offense can move the ball on anyone. When he doesn’t have a clean pocket and has to get rid of the ball before plays come open, you can throw them off schedule.
Of course, this has been a glaring weakness for the Arizona defense in recent weeks after some success despite a lack of total sacks earlier in the season.
Big Three
The aforementioned playmakers in the offense center around running back Artavis Pierce, receiver Isaiah Hodgins and tight end Noah Togiai. The Beavers will utilize these players not just to get the ball in their hands, but to draw attention to them and set up other players with well-designed plays.
Pierce has emerged as one of the league’s top all-around running backs. He averages 6.0 yards per carry and has five rushing touchdowns, but also has 15 receptions and a touchdown catching the ball. His breakout senior season has lessoned the blow to the loss of Jemar Jefferson, who entered the season as the top back. Jefferson has been banged up and could play Saturday, but he may also be destined for a redshirt season. With him, they have two really good options to hand the ball to.
The challenge of stopping Pierce and the ground game is amplified by the presence of Togiai, a versatile tight end who has improved this season as a blocker. He is the second-leading receiver, and while he does not have a touchdown catch yet this season, he is a challenge for linebackers and safeties to account for in the play-action game. The Beavers will use him, and the other tight ends, in a variety of ways, so Cecil and newly promoted linebackers coach Hank Hobson will have their hands full.
Then, there is arguably the top playmaker of them all with the 6-foot-4, 209-pound Hodgins on the outside. The junior is a very athletic playmaker with good hands, who leads the Pac-12 with 56 receptions for 745 yards and 10 touchdowns. He averages eight receptions for 106 yards per game. Much like Michael Pittman at USC a couple weeks ago, he is a matchup nightmare on the outside.
What to Expect From Oregon State’s Defense
Disruption Up Front
The Beavers run a 3-4 base defensive front that, like the Wildcats have seen from Washington and Stanford, can show plenty of different looks to create confusion and pressure.
One thing that stands out with Oregon State’s defensive front is that it creates a lot of negative yardage plays. Despite playing only seven games (all other Pac-12 teams have played eight), the Beavers lead the conference with 60 tackles-for-loss. Now, it is worth noting that 14 of those, including nine sacks, came in the last outing against California when the Golden Bears were down to their second and third options at quarterback.
Still, the Beavers want to disrupt plays at the line of scrimmage. It is interesting to see their interior down lineman line up in various ways. At times, they will be more than a yard off the line of scrimmage (something more commonly done against traditional triple-option teams to combat cut blocks). This gives them room to keep the hands and bodies of the offensive linemen off them at the snap of the ball, putting them in proper gaps with better vision to see what is taking place in the backfield. They will also slant and stunt out of various fronts, and will do some late adjustments and stems to confuse the blocking schemes.
All of this said, the Beavers have given up some big plays, particularly in the run game. They have surrendered a dozen rush plays of 20 or more yards (three touchdowns over 50 yards), which is second-worst in the league despite one fewer game. And while Oregon State has the third-most sacks in the Pac-12, 15 have come in their three victories (including nine against California).
The Wildcats will want to know where Phoenix, Ariz., native Hamilcar Rashed Jr. lines up. The 6-foot-4, 236-pound outside linebacker is the most dynamic playmaker on the defense. He leads the team in tackles (43), tackles-for-loss (14.5), sacks (9.0), forced fumbles (2), fumble recoveries (1) and is second with two pass breakups.
Secondary
If the Beavers are unable to create pressure, they are vulnerable to the passing game.
Despite allowing only 235.3 yards per game passing, Oregon State’s defense ranks No. 10 in the conference for pass efficiency defense (152.8). Teams are completing over 62 percent of their passes against the Beavers, who have intercepted opposing quarterbacks only three times.
Watching games against Stanford, UCLA and California, the secondary has struggled to hold up when quarterbacks have a clean pocket, especially when they are left in man-to-man coverage on blitzes. The cornerbacks will use their hands a lot, and have been rightly flagged on occasion.
The safeties have played aggressively, at times, coming downhill to stop the run or break on short to intermediate routes. When they take poor angles, they are susceptible to missed tackles, and they don’t have great speed to cover sideline to sideline like some secondaries in this league.
Special Teams
While this is not a defensive note to watch for, it is worth pointing out some struggles Oregon State has had on special teams this season.
The Beavers have kicked off 38 times this season and only have 12 touchbacks. While kicking on a pleasant fall afternoon in Tucson may help that cause, they have been susceptible to giving up yards in the return game. Opponents are averaging 27.0 yards per return this season, gaining 541 yards, including a long of 65.
However, it was a 43-yard return late in the game against Stanford that was most costly. Oregon State had just tied the game at 28-28 with a touchdown and under two minutes remaining when Stanford’s Connor Wedington returned the ensuing kickoff 43 yards to midfield, setting up a game-winning field goal.
Additionally, the Beavers had a costly penalty earlier in the fourth quarter that allowed Stanford to score seven points instead of three. With the Cardinal attempting a 46-yard field goal, Rashed Jr. was called for a leaping penalty as he climbed up over the snapper to try and jump to block the field goal. The kick was good, for a 24-14 lead, but David Shaw elected to accept the 15-yard penalty and take the points off the board. Two plays later, it was a 28-14 game with the touchdown.
In the kicking game, the Beavers are 2-for-7 on field goals. Oregon State switched up kickers at California, using Everett Hayes instead of Jordan Choukair. Hayes did not try a field goal, but did convert his PATs.
Meanwhile, the Beavers have been strong punting the football
as Daniel Rodriguez averages over 44 yards per punt and the team has a
respectable net average of 40.0 yards. In the return game, Champ Flemmings has
shown flashes, returning 18 kickoffs for 432 yards (24.0), including a long of
66.
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