In the Week 9 Picks to Click, I warned to not be fooled into a chalky weekend of games as it felt like a few upsets were lurking.
Well, that’s exactly what the weekend brought us. Seven teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 went down, including the biggest surprise of them all when No. 5 Oklahoma was shocked by unranked Kansas State. Two other ranked teams – No. 15 SMU and No. 13 Oregon – escaped with close wins or the tally of Top 25 teams tumbling could have been higher.
The Sooners’ loss is yet another shakeup to the College Football Playoff picture. In each of the last three weeks, we have seen previously unbeaten Georgia, Wisconsin and now Oklahoma teams upset. That in itself isn’t surprising or even entirely detrimental to one’s playoff chances, but how these teams lost is what turns your head a little bit.
Each was at least a 20-point favorite going into the game, and the three teams they lost to – South Carolina, Illinois and Kansas State – are a combined 3-9 in their respective conferences when you remove the upset wins.
What those loses have done is leave us with five clear favorites at the top. Undefeated LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Penn State compose nearly everyone’s top five at this point of the season, and that in likelihood will remain the case for another week. Four of those five schools are idle this week, and Clemson hosts an FCS program – Wofford.
Of the five unbeaten teams at the top, AP voters are uncertain on who is the best. LSU, Alabama and Ohio State are the top three in order of this week’s poll, but they are separated by eight total points – closest margin in over four decades (Note: my national top 10 below has Alabama at No. 4).
This week, our attention will be on the Cocktail Party pitting 1-loss foes Florida and Georgia together in Jacksonville. The winner slides firmly into position immediately behind the top-5 as a playoff contender.
Hot on their heels will be a pair of Pac-12 teams, Oregon and Utah, which are also 1-loss teams playing well at the right time. Each has a critical road game this week, with the Ducks traveling to face USC, and the Utes heading northwest to take on Washington.
Oregon is the clear frontrunner in the Pac-12 North, but Utah will need help shaking off USC in the Pac-12 South (Trojans beat the Utes in September). While plenty of football remains, should the Ducks and Utes make it through November unscathed, a matchup of 1-loss teams in the Pac-12 Championship game could set the stage for one of these teams to sneak into the playoffs.
For now, here are the Dry Heat Sports Pac-12 Power Rankings and the National Top 10 entering Week 10.
Pac-12 Power Rankings
South Division
1. Utah (7-1, 4-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. California, 35-0
Next Game: Saturday at Washington
The Utes roll into Seattle as one of the nation’s hottest teams, but still haven’t been able to shake USC in the Pac-12 South race. This is a big game for Utah and the Pac-12 if you care to consider paths to the College Football playoff.
2. USC (5-3, 4-1 Pac-12)
Last Week: Won at Colorado, 35-31
Next Game: Saturday vs. Oregon
The Trojans’ rally in Boulder keeps them in front of Utah in the Pac-12 South standings. If USC could pull an upset in Eugene, the Pac-12 South title may be theirs for the taking.
3. UCLA (3-5, 3-2
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Arizona State, 42-32
Next Game: Saturday vs. Colorado
The Bruins are gaining confidence, and Dorian Thompson-Robinson appears ready to play again this week against a slumping Colorado team.
4. Arizona State (5-3, 2-3
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost vs. UCLA, 42-32
Next Game: Nov. 9 vs. USC
Herm Edwards’ squad gets a much-needed bye following consecutive losses. Hitting the reset button will be important heading into a tough closing stretch that includes USC and Oregon.
5. Arizona (4-4, 2-3
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at Stanford, 41-31
Next Game: Saturday vs. Oregon State
With the firing of defensive coordinator Marcel Yates, Kevin Sumlin made it clear he wants his team to win now. Can the Cats get things back on track for a late-season charge?
6. Colorado (3-5, 1-4 Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost vs. USC, 35-31
Next Game: Saturday at UCLA
The Buffaloes had a prime opportunity to upset USC last Friday night, but too many penalties and a couple unlucky bounces on Trojan fumbles handed Mel Tucker a fourth-straight loss.
North Division
1. Oregon (7-1, 5-0
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Washington State, 37-35
Next Game: Saturday at USC
Oregon avoided an upset with a thrilling last-second win over Washington State at Autzen Stadium. Now, the Ducks can make their claim as a 1-loss playoff contender with a strong performance on the road.
2. Stanford (4-4, 3-3
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Arizona, 41-31
Next Game: Nov. 9 at Colorado
K.J. Costello returned and the banged up Cardinal got the offense rolling against Arizona. Now a bye week should allow Stanford time to get healthier for a late-season push to bowl eligibility.
3. Washington (5-3, 2-3
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday vs. Utah
The Huskies are rested after a bye, but are they ready for an upset? Expect to see Washington’s best against one of the nation’s most balanced teams.
4. Washington State (4-4,
1-4 Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at Oregon, 37-35
Next Game: Nov. 9 at California
The Cougars put a scare in the Ducks, but they couldn’t finish the job. The final bye week comes before four straight games against Pac-12 North foes, so there is room to move up the standings.
5. Oregon State (3-4, 2-2
Pac-12)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday at Arizona
Rested and recharged, the Beavers are seeking their third consecutive road conference win. But will Arizona’s defensive coaching changes put a damper in those plans?
6. California (4-4, 1-4
Pac-12)
Last Week: Lost at Utah, 35-0
Next Game: Nov. 9 vs. Washington State
Rinse and repeat. The loss of quarterback Chase Garbers derailed a once promising season.
National Top 10
1. Ohio State (8-0, 5-0
Big 10 East)
Last Week: Won vs. Wisconsin, 38-7
Next Game: Nov. 9 vs. Maryland
The Buckeyes continue to play the most complete football in the country. Does a bye week slow them down at all?
2. LSU (8-0, 4-0 SEC
West)
Last Week: Won vs. Auburn, 23-20
Next Game: Nov. 9 at Alabama
The Tigers won yet another big game. Now, it’s time to rest up before the biggest one yet.
3. Clemson (8-0, 6-0 ACC
Atlantic)
Last Week: Won vs. Boston College, 59-7
Next Game: Saturday vs. Wofford
As Clemson rounds into form, it makes you wonder if an FCS opponent is really what Dabo Sweeney & Co. need right now.
4. Alabama (8-0, 5-0 SEC
West)
Last Week: Won vs. Arkansas, 48-7
Next Game: Nov. 9 vs. LSU
The big question for the Crimson Tide is whether Tua Tagavailoa is ready to go against LSU.
5. Penn State (8-0, 5-0
Big Ten East)
Last Week: Won at Michigan State, 28-7
Next Game: Nov. 9 at Minnesota
Penn State continues to take care of business and receives a well-time bye before arguably the biggest home game in Minnesota history on Nov. 9.
6. Georgia (6-1, 3-1 SEC
East)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday vs. Florida
Consider the Cocktail Party a defacto elimination game from
College Football Playoff consideration. Win, and the Bulldogs can make a
late-season push. Lose, and it’s a disappointing season for Kirby Smart.
7. Florida (7-1, 4-1 SEC East)
Last Week: Idle
Next Game: Saturday vs. Georgia
Dan Mullen’s squad is still sitting there as a dangerous 1-loss team. Knock off Georgia, and the Gators could run the table the rest of the way.
8. Utah (7-1, 4-1
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. California, 35-0
Next Game: Saturday at Washington
Few teams in the country are playing more complete football than Utah since its September loss at USC. The Utes need to prove they can win tough games like that on the road, which is exactly what they have in store this week.
9. Oregon (7-1, 5-0
Pac-12)
Last Week: Won vs. Washington State, 37-35
Next Game: Saturday at USC
Oregon earned a needed road win two weeks ago at Washington, but it needs another marquee victory away from Autzen this week to remain a contender for the CFB Playoff.
10. Oklahoma (7-1, 4-1 Big
12)
Last Week: Lost at Kansas State, 48-41
Next Game: Nov. 9 vs. Iowa State
After a 10-0 start, the Sooners were trounced 48-31 the rest of the game in Manhattan. It’s the type of loss that will make it hard for this team to work its way back toward CFP Playoff consideration.
Dropped Out: #8 Notre Dame – Lost at Michigan, 45-14
View last week’s rankings here.
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