This is a really intriguing game from both perspectives.
USC is not a great team, but it is not a bad team either. There have been some really good moments for the Trojans this season, and they remain in the thick of the Pac-12 South race with a 2-1 record despite a 3-3 overall mark.
The question for the Trojans is how focused are they? Their head coach, Clay Helton, is constantly rumored to be out of a job after this season. They have injuries all over the field. They rank near the bottom of the FBS in several statistical categories, including turnover margin, penalties and red zone touch percentage, which I highlighted in my “What to Expect From USC” story earlier this week.
However, USC is undefeated at home this season and, as mentioned, can still play for the Pac-12 Championship if they win the South Division. So there is plenty to play for.
On Arizona’s side, there was a deflated feeling from the fan base after a home loss to Washington a week ago. Still, the Wildcats have everything to play for. They, too, are 2-1 in the conference and can be a surprise contender in the South if they can win on the road. But, they have not won in Southern California since 2010 (at UCLA) and haven’t beaten the Trojans in the Coliseum since 2009.
As you will see in my keys to the game below, a fast start will be critical to push aside the recent history, including last week’s second half performance and the run of tough luck playing in California. The sooner the Wildcats gain confidence and momentum, the sooner the Trojans are forced to answer their own questions.
Let’s take a look at this week’s keys to the game.
1. Start Fast (all phases)
2. Establish the Run (offense)
3. Win the turnover battle (all phases)
4. Keep the Trojans in front (defense)
5. Strike up OUR band (Pride of Arizona)
The Wildcats win if …
They get off to a fast start, force a couple turnovers and can establish the run game against the Trojans. Slow starts have plagued Arizona not only in recent losses, but in recent games against USC before second-half surges. Gaining early confidence and momentum will be critical for a team, especially on offense, that may be questioning itself after last week’s performance. Meanwhile, the Trojans are battled-tested, but also mistake-prone. The Wildcats must be able to force a turnover or two and capitalize on, after not earning a defensive takeaway in the last two outings. Teams that have beaten USC have been successful running the football and controlling the line of scrimmage. In fact, USC has surrendered at least 5.0 yards per carry in four of its six games. The only two teams that didn’t do this were Stanford and BYU, ranked No. 107 and No. 114, respectively, rushing the football this season (BYU still rushed for 131 yards in its win over the Trojans). If Arizona’s offensive line can create push and open up a few holes early, the tone can be set and pressure will be taken off the passing game. Defensively, the Wildcats will have to keep plays in front of them, tackle well and disguise pressures to force the ball out of the hand of Kedon Slovis. Lastly, the Wildcats have yet to score a non-offensive touchdown this season. Stealing a score in either aspect of the game would be huge in a game like this, and would factor into the confidence and momentum that will be necessary to win on the road.
The Wildcats lose if …
The offense continues to turn the ball over, the defense cannot stop the run or create turnovers, and the Arizona special teams gets outplayed once again. If Khalil Tate and the Wildcats do not protect the football, winning this game on the road will become nearly impossible. The Trojans have one of the nation’s worst turnover margins, so helping them more than they hurt themselves is not the recipe here. The offense needs to establish a rhythm early, something it has not done well lately (or well on the road the last two years). If the Wildcats are not able to run the football, the pressure mounts for Tate and the passing game, which plays into the hands of defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast who has plenty of options to dial up blitzes. The other challenge for Arizona is matching up with the Trojans’ athletes on offense. USC’s receivers are as talented as any in the league, and one-on-one matchups are what Slovis and offensive coordinator Graham Harrell are looking to create. This will happen if the Wildcats cannot stop the run. Look for redshirt freshman running back Markese Stepp to get the bulk of the carries. He had a breakout game at Notre Dame last week, and is a load to bring down. If the Wildcats cannot contain the rushing attack, they’ll have to break out of their zone coverages and commit numbers near the line of scrimmage. That’s when Slovis can find his top playmakers in one-on-one coverages. Lastly, the Trojans have not shown much in the return game this season, but they are always a threat there and they block kicks. They surely see opportunities to get after Arizona’s special teams units, especially on punt and field goals.
Prediction:
Arizona 28, USC 27
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