What to Expect From USC

When you have a four-game win streak snapped like Arizona football did last Saturday, the cure is to start a new streak.

In order to do so, however, the Wildcats will first have to snap a handful of less flattering streaks.

As the Wildcats set out on a two-week stretch that takes them to USC and Stanford, consider the following:

• UA has lost its last six games against USC
• UA has lost eight consecutive games played in Southern California (at USC or UCLA)
• UA has lost 11 straight road games against USC, UCLA and Stanford
• UA hasn’t won at USC since 2009 (0-4)
• UA hasn’t won at Stanford since 2006 (0-4)

Indeed, it has been a very long time since Arizona beat either USC or Stanford on the road. So long, in fact, that Pete Carroll was the head coach of the Trojans in 2009, and Walt Harris – yes, Walt Harris – was the coach of the Cardinal the last time the Wildcats won in Palo Alto.

Fast-forward to the present and there’s plenty at stake in the coming weeks for the Wildcats.

We begin with a look at the Trojans, who have dropped consecutive road contests at Washington and Notre Dame, with a bye week in between. USC has played one of the nation’s toughest schedules to date, and while its 3-3 overall record may not jump out at you, the Trojans are 2-1 in the Pac-12 with wins over Stanford and Utah. They are also 3-0 at the Coliseum this season.

Not only has USC faced a difficult schedule, it has done so with a ton of injuries, notably to quarterbacks JT Daniels and Kedon Slovis. Daniels, the returning starter entering the season, was lost for the year in the opener. Slovis, a true freshman from Scottdale, Ariz., took over starting duties before he was injured in the upset over Utah. Slovis returned to action last week in South Bend, Ind., and will be the starter against Arizona.

Of course, the Trojans have been dealing with uncertainty off the field. There has been plenty of speculation about Clay Helton’s job status, something only magnified in September when the university announcing the resignation of athletic director, Lynn Swann, who was facing his own pressures.

The program’s future is a frequent conversation, not only in Southern California but nationally as well. Just this week, Yahoo Sports’ Pete Thamel wrote about the importance of the AD hire as it is a precursor to the hiring of the next football coach, should Helton not make it past this season.

On the field, the Trojans have been solid, but unspectacular. They hired Graham Harrell as offensive coordinator in the offense to modernize the offense and utilize the talented skill players. That took a bit of a hit when Daniels was injured, but Slovis is savvy and talented in his own right, so not much has changed for Harrell as he continues to implement a more spread-based offensive system with some roots to the Mike Leach Air Raid in which he played at Texas Tech.

Defensively, coordinator Clancy Pendergast has talent at all levels of the defense, but it’s been a struggle to keep players healthy. The secondary has been the most banged up, and features all freshmen and sophomores.

The Trojans have struggled statistically this season in several key areas, including turnover margin (No. 121 nationally), penalties (No. 107) and red zone touchdown percentage (No. 90). They have also struggled to win the battle of big plays. USC ranks No. 94 nationally in offensive plays of at least 10 yards, while the defense is No. 101 for plays of 10 or more yards allowed.

Perhaps the biggest key to this week’s game for the Wildcats will be avoiding a slow start, something common in recent years against the Trojans. Arizona has been outscored 38-6 in the first half of the last two meetings, while outscoring USC 49-35 in the second half. Two years ago in Los Angeles, Arizona fell behind 28-6 by the third quarter, but rallied to tie the game 35-35 before two late Trojan touchdowns put the game away.

Now, let’s take a little closer look at what to expect this time around from the Trojans.

What to Expect From USC’s Offense

Talented Wideouts

The best players on USC’s offense are the incredibly athletic wide receivers. This group is what necessitated the change to a spread attack and the hiring of Harrell as the offensive coordinator.

Players like Michael Pittman Jr. (6-4, 220), Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-1, 195) and Tyler Vaughns (6-2, 190) are mismatches for almost any secondary. They are nearly impossible to defend one-on-one, something Utah found out the hard way in the September loss at the Coliseum.

Last week, Notre Dame played with a three-down defensive front and a ton of two-deep safety coverage. The Irish forced the Trojans to stick with short and intermediate passing, effectively taking away the deep ball. In fact, most of USC’s first-half offensive success was in running the football. When the Trojans did begin to establish a rhythm passing the ball in the second half, they went at a faster tempo and were also aided by Notre Dame blitzing and leaving more one-on-one coverage on the outside.

While Arizona will have to mix up its defensive looks to avoid being predictable, it will be likely the Wildcats play a lot of zone coverage this week to force throws underneath. The Trojans are dead last in the Pac-12 in turnover margin, so the more snaps you make them run, the more likely it is they will turn it over. As noted, USC also ranks in the bottom-third nationally for scrimmage plays of 10 or more yards, so this is a formula other teams have used as well.

The concern for the Wildcats will be whether their base defense front (three or four down linemen) can create any sort of pass rush. Notre Dame and Washington have been able to disrupt plays without blitzing, allowing them to play with deep safeties. This is where Arizona must be creative with its pressures, while also being prepared to avoid one-on-one situations against USC’s talented wide receiver corps.

Don’t Sleep on the Ground Game

Do not confuse Harrell’s offensive system with what Leach has run his whole career. While the Trojans are spreading things out and throwing the ball more this year, there is plenty of traditional run game in USC’s offense. It just doesn’t come from under center anymore.

The Trojans are expected to be without leading running back Vavae Malepeai, who had a minor surgery this week. Stephen Carr is a talented and experienced back, who excels on cutbacks and using his speed to get to the edge of the defense. He’s a true game-breaker if he gets in the open field.

However, we should expect to see a heavy dose of an emerging option in redshirt freshman Markese Stepp, who saw his most extended action last week at Notre Dame. Stepp is a big, physical runner (6-0, 235) with good running back instincts. He was a load to bring down, even for the Irish.

The Trojans also have plenty of quick game in their offense – screens and short throws at the line of scrimmage to their receivers. This is complemented by a well-rounded tight end, Erik Krommenhoek. At 6-5, 260, Krommenhoek is a physical blocker that can line up out wide, attached to the line of scrimmage or in the backfield.

Wrinkles?

I will be interested to see if USC has any wrinkles in its offense this week. Against Notre Dame, they stuck to their system and trusted the adjustments they made throughout the game. Ultimately, that paid off and it nearly rallied them to a victory late in South Bend.

However, their top receiver, Pittman Jr., had only four catches for 29 yards. He also was held to four catches for 64 yards against Washington. This on the heels of a 10-catch, 232-yard performance against Utah earlier in the season. In fact, prior to the loss against the Huskies, Pittman had at least six receptions in each of the first four games of the year.

The Trojans have to get this talented playmaker the ball. Credit Washington and Notre Dame for limiting his effect on the game by playing deep safeties over the top of him to protect the underneath coverage.

But can USC continue to split Pittman out wide and let teams take him out of the game so easily? I don’t think so. Harrell’s offense does not use much motion, but I would at least expect the Trojans to find ways to put Pittman in the slot and move him around formations to make Arizona adjust.

Additionally, the USC offense does not typically play at a fast tempo, but they can go to it, if needed. It helped simplify the looks the Irish were showing in the second half last week. Could that be another weapon the Trojans use to prevent the Wildcats from substituting and matching their personnel to the down and distance situation?

What to Expect From USC’s Defense

Young Secondary

USC has a very talented, but very young secondary that has also sustained a variety of injuries in recent games. This group can be a vulnerability, especially when it comes to communication and being sound in assignments.

However, the Trojans’ top playmaker is safety Talanoa Hufanga, who missed the Washington game but was back at Notre Dame. Hufanga is a ballhawk that affects the game in many ways, including as a blitzer. The Wildcats will be wise to know where he is on the field.

One interesting tactic that Pendergast displayed numerous times against Notre Dame was to blitz cornerbacks/safeties off the backside of the player in motion. Meaning, if a receiver motioned from the left side of the formation to the right, the corner who initially was matched up with the receiver would pass off his man to another defender on the other side of the formation and then became an edge defender looking to get into the backfield. This caught the Irish off guard several times early in the game, but there could be some vulnerabilities that Noel Mazzone can dial up if the Wildcats get this look this week.

Lastly, the Irish did use a fair amount of motion throughout the game, which in some cases tipped off coverages and led to more favorable matchups. Mazzone may be able to move the Wildcat running backs and slots (and tight end) around from time to time to again expose a vulnerability or two in the USC defense.  

Lack of Depth/Tempo

The injuries on the defensive side of the ball have left Pendergast with few options at several positions, including the secondary as discussed above. He also plays his talented defensive front a lot a plays, and does not substitute as often as some coordinators will.

Because of this, the Wildcats may be wise to lean on tempo this week for several reasons. For one, if Arizona’s offense can move the ball, it will work to tire out a thin defense as the game moves along. Secondly, it simplifies both the defensive look that Wildcats may see and also will simplify communication for Arizona’s offense. Being on the road, that’s always a concern. And lastly, USC’s defense was vulnerable to tempo last week in South Bend.

Notre Dame switched to a faster tempo in the second quarter, and the result was two touchdown drives after a stagnant start. At the same time, the Irish were able to catch the Trojans with too many men on the field multiple times as the Trojans tried to sub after Notre Dame picked up a first down.

Arizona is going to need all the advantages it can get if it is to win on the road. This could be one that pays off at times throughout the game.

Talented, Multiple Defensive Fronts

 The Trojans have a talented front four, and their base defense is primarily a 4-3 and frequently play a 4-2-5 with a nickel (which we should see against UA’s spread). The defensive front is the most consistent group for the Trojans, both tough to block in the run game and athletic enough to create a pass rush both by blitzing and not blitzing.

Pendergast really opened the play sheet last week at Notre Dame, especially in the first half. He showed a lot of different looks out of the base personnel. He showed as many as seven rushers at the line of scrimmage, and would use any combination of them to drop back into coverages. He also utilized a three-man rush, dropping a fourth player into a spy position. Whether USC sent a blitz or backed off, their chief concern was keeping the quarterback in the pocket (sound familiar?).

This was interesting because Notre Dame quarterback Ian Book is not the most athletic quarterback in the world, but he is sneaky as a runner. The Trojans were committed to keeping him in the pocket, but Book was still able to hurt them stepping up to deliver throws and running up the middle as he adjusted to the scheme throughout the game.

I would expect the Wildcats to again see some of the looks Washington used last week in Tucson, plus the variety of looks USC showed Notre Dame last week. The key difference is the Trojans are likely to stick with their base four-down look most of the game.

It will be imperative for Arizona’s offensive line to have a strong performance this week against the athletic Trojans’ defensive front. Teams have been able to run the football surprisingly well, and it has to be done up front. USC has good sideline-to-sideline speed, so getting outside on them is difficult.

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