Like a lot of people, I am excited about the prospects of this year’s Arizona men’s basketball team. It very well could be the best team Sean Miller has had in his tenure, which would make it the best Wildcat squad since at least 2004-05 when Lute Olson last contended for a Final Four run.
Not to pump the breaks too hard, but it is important to note a few things given the small sample size we have to evaluate this year’s team to date. First, the Wildcats have yet to face an elite team. Second, they have yet to play away from McKale Center. Third, it’s not yet even Thanksgiving.
We will learn quite a bit more next week once this team hits the road for the Wooden Legacy tournament over Thanksgiving weekend (see bracket here). Arizona will open against Pepperdine, which is coached by Lorenzo Romar. The Waves dropped their season opener against California, but have won three in a row, including a win over what should be a solid UC Irvine team. Pepperdine plays at USC tonight (Tuesday).
The Wildcats will play the winner/loser of an opening round game between Central Florida and Pennsylvania. The Golden Knights were an NCAA Tournament team a year ago, and while they are replacing a few key pieces, they have enough size experience to pose a challenge. Meanwhile, the Quakers have already picked up a win at Alabama in the season opener, defeating the Crimson Tide 81-80. Veteran head coach Steve Donahue, who has stints at Cornell and Boston College, had the Quakers in the NCAA Tournament two years ago.
On the other side of the bracket, Providence is the likely favorite. Assuming the Friars get past Long Beach State in the opening round, they will be challenged by Wake Forest and Charleston on the second day
The championship game is slated for 9 p.m. EST on Sunday, Dec. 1 with a national television broadcast on ESPN. That would be a good stage for the Wildcats if they are fortunate to get there.
After the Wooden Legacy, where the Wildcats play three games in four days, Miller’s squad gets nearly a full week to prepare for a big non-conference game at Baylor on Saturday, Dec. 7. Two home games follow the next week, including the showdown against Gonzaga on Saturday Dec. 14. The non-conference slate wraps up with a neutral site game against St. John’s on Dec. 21.
By Christmas, we will have a real good feel for the potential of this year’s team as it prepares for a much deeper and more potent Pac-12 Conference season. There are going to be tough shooting nights for Arizona, hot shooting nights for opponents, poorly officiated games and certainly various types of zones and trapping defenses the Wildcats will have to navigate.
Before we get to that point in the season, here are a few things I am eager to see the Wildcats build upon before leaving the friendly confines of McKale Center and begin facing stiffer competition down the road.
Build Confidence for Chase and Ira
Zeke Nnaji is certainly a revelation among the freshman class, and he is going to be a matchup nightmare on the offensive end for most teams throughout the year. His ridiculous start to the season (averaging 21.0 points per game and has made 33-of-39 field goal attempts) has probably caught some teams by surprise who did not have film on him, but that is going to change soon. Teams will have to focus their interior defense on Nnaji – both denying the ball getting inside to him and finding ways to double him when he does have the ball.
As teams begin to make that adjustment – and simply have
talent that can better match up with him – the Wildcats will need more offensive
contributions from Chase Jeter and Ira Lee.
It’s early, but the two veteran post players are combining for only 11 points
per game and, more alarmingly, are shooting a combined 9-for-24 (38 percent)
from the field. A season ago, Jeter averaged 11 points per game and shot 57
percent from the floor, while Lee averaged close to seven points and shot 62
percent. More impressive for Lee, his.626
mark from the floor in Pac-12 play was the highest mark by an Arizona player
with at least 75 attempts since Joseph Blair shot .630 in 1993-94.
To their credit, Jeter and Lee both seem to embrace their roles right now, which start with rebounding and defending. However, the Wildcats will need to get points from them should Nnaji get in foul trouble or go down with an injury at some point. They each proved to be high-percentage players from the field a year ago, and there is no reason they shouldn’t be this season, even if their volume decreases.
I would like to see Arizona make it a focus the next couple games to get these guys the ball in positions to score and get to the foul line. The better they play, the tougher it will be for teams to focus their attention on Nnaji, who has advanced offensive skills at this stage of his career.
Crash the Glass
Among the things that stands out for this Arizona basketball team is that it plays hard on both ends of the court. The guys are much more active defensively getting deflections and going after loose balls than teams the last couple years. With that said, this has not been a great rebounding team, yet.
The Wildcats are pretty much in the middle of the pack (out of 350-plus teams) when it comes to defensive rebounding. Teams are getting an offensive rebound on 27.7 percent of their missed shot opportunities, which is around No. 150 nationally. By comparison, last year’s Arizona team ranked in the top 100, and the six Miller teams prior to last year were all in the top 50. The 2015 team led the nation at 22.4 percent.
Offensively, Arizona is around No. 125 for offensive rebound percentage, but this statistic will be less critical for the Wildcats if they continue to shoot the basketball at such a high percentage. Thus far, Arizona is shooting 52.7 percent from the field, including 43.6 percent from three-point range.
It should be noted that the Wildcats did a solid job on the offensive glass in their only truly competitive game of the season. Arizona had a 10-8 advantage on the offensive glass against Illinois, but otherwise has surrendered at least 10 offensive boards to opponents in the other three games.
Defend Without Fouling
A hallmark of a good defensive team is one that defends without fouling. That includes making it tough on teams to get clean looks at the rim, but does so without putting opponents at the line with an opportunity to score cheap points. A measure used by Ken Pomeroy (kenpom.com) and others for this is defensive free throw rate, which is the number of opponent free throw attempts divided by their number of field goal attempts.
I took a look at the last five Final Fours, and among those 20 participants, 16 of the teams ranked inside the top 100 for defensive free throw rate, with a dozen of the squads ranking in the top 50. Only one team (Texas Tech last year) ranked outside of the top 100 and made it to the national title game.
Through four games, Arizona ranks No. 170 nationally with a defensive foul rate of 30.5. This is down from a disastrous 35.0 (No. 235 nationally) a season ago, but not near the levels of Miller’s better defensive teams that have generally been inside the top 100 (most recent bests were No. 37 in 2016 and No. 38 in 2017).
It’s not unusual to commit more fouls early in the season as teams learn how to defend and adjust to actual game speed (not to mention officials often call more fouls early in the year. But one of the reasons Arizona’s foul rate is high right now is the Wildcats have fouled several three-point shooters in recent games. There’s rarely a good excuse for fouling a three-point shooter, and that fact is magnified this season with the line moving back.
Another reason to be slightly concerned with Arizona’s early-season fouling is that it’s possible fewer fouls are being called nationally this year than in recent seasons. There has been less public attention drawn this season to an officiating point of emphasis on freedom of movement, which drew quite a bit of attention the last couple years.
As last season wore on, it appeared that fewer “freedom of movement” fouls were being called across the nation and that may have had an effect on offensive pace and scoring, which took a significant drop last February, according to Pomeroy. Pace typically slows later in the season as teams settle in defensively and begin to value offensive possessions more for meaningful games, but last year saw an even sharper drop off than previous years, which could be explained by more physicality being allowed in the half court with fewer fouls and free throws.
It’s possible the rules-makers this year hope the expanded three-point line opens up play underneath the three-point line, thus they don’t need to emphasize freedom of movement as much as previous season. This could also be a factor, along with a slightly lower three-point percentage, as to why it appears college basketball will be headed for one of the worst offensive seasons in years.
With a deep, athletic and versatile lineup, the Wildcats have the makings of a very good defensive team and one that won’t need to foul. The guards, outside of maybe Max Hazzard, can switch and guard multiple positions on the perimeter. The bigs are also athletic enough to switch off or hedge out on ball screens. With multiple options at the four and five positions, this should be an area that continues to improve throughout the year, if only because they have bodies to practice against it unlike last season.
Efficient Depth
Indeed, the Wildcats currently have a very unique roster given the number of transfers, one-and-dones (Arizona likely has three of them) and injuries that are prevalent in today’s college basketball world. While this may be the deepest team that Sean Miller has had, as the season goes on, it will be more about quality of play and efficiency than it is about the depth.
Every single player in the current 10 or 11-man rotation will have the opportunity, through practice and games, to either improve or regress in the coming weeks and months. The product you see on the floor here in November will be vastly different come February and March.
As that process takes place, it becomes imperative that Arizona is playing the players that make it better; not just playing players for the sake of depth.
In examining the Final Four teams of the last five seasons, it was striking to discover that only two teams (North Carolina in 2017 and Kentucky in 2015) ranked in the Top 100 for bench minutes. While that Tar Heels team won the national title, the other four national champions ranked no better than No. 217 in bench minutes, with three outside No. 300. Altogether, half of the 20 teams to get to the final four ranked No. 200 or worse for bench minutes.
Right now, Arizona is No. 21 nationally for bench minutes. If the win over Illinois was any indication, the Wildcats have three starters that are going to get the bulk of the minutes: Nico Mannion, Josh Green and Zeke Nnaji. Each played at least 33 minutes in that contest, and deservedly so (they totaled 62 points, 14 rebounds and 13 assists). But there are players behind them hungry to get minutes, too.
Where Arizona’s depth will be an asset throughout the next month or two is if the rest of the team continues to buy into their roles, especially pushing one another in practices. Competition for time at the backup guard and wing positions should be fierce. Same inside with Ira Lee and Chase Jeter, who will have to hold off a hungry and ever-developing Christian Koloko, while continuing to challenge Nnaji.
What Arizona does not need come the start of Pac-12 season is players getting minutes simply to get minutes, and there is nothing in Miller’s coaching makeup that would suggest he would do that. If you aren’t rebounding, your minutes are going to decrease. If someone doesn’t get back in transition, find them a seat on the bench. If you’re a liability on defense and fouling too frequently, someone else needs to be ready to step in.
Of course, where depth is most welcomed is battling through adversity should a player or two get injured. That’s where fans should feel the most security with this team. The minutes will work themselves out over time.
Get the latest content from Dry Heat Sports by following on Facebook (@DryHeatSportsAZ), Twitter (@DryHeatSportsAZ) and subscribing below.
You can also follow Blair’s personal Twitter account @BlairWillisUA.
Great story. I, too, am reserving judgment on the broader potential of this team. You addressed many of the issues that I am focused on. Rebounding being a key component. To be frank, this team should be a better rebounding team from an athleticism standpoint. A more aggressive defensive approach spreads you out and makes it more difficult to rebound. In addition, the aggressive nature leads to more fouls.
Knowing Sean’s commitment to defense and rebounding as a pillar of his coaching philosophy, I fully expect growth in this area.
So much more to discuss – look forward to more articles as the season wears on.
I agree, Ryan. I like the fact Sean is giving these guys – especially the guards – a little freedom to extend on the defensive end. It keeps them active and ready to sprint out in transition if they get a deflection or steal. They are quick and athletic enough to recover, but it will be interesting to see how disciplined and tough they can be against teams with smart ball movement and proper patience.
Post defense will become my number one concern down the road, but at least there are a few big, athletic bodies to turn to so Zeke doesn’t have to take that those lumps by himself. I hope Chase can understand the value of doing his job and understanding the better this team plays, the better his prospects for a professional opportunity will increase.
The one thing I do feel really good about: there’s a competitiveness to Nico, Josh and Zeke that I think will show up in the big moments and big games.
Going to be fun to watch, but it’s a long season.