Washington at Arizona Game Prediction

ICYMI: What to Expect From Washington

Last week, my game preview accurately predicted Arizona’s 35-30 win over Colorado. Yes, I somehow nailed the exact score of the game.

I bring this up not to boast about that prediction; it’s surely mostly luck to get the exact score.

Instead, I point this out to remind anyone reading these previews that my predicted score is likely to always favor the Wildcats in a best-case scenario. It’s also why I don’t include the Arizona games in my weekly Picks to Click. There are simply too many emotional attachments to the Wildcats for me to pick against them.

That is, in essence, why I format these weekly game predictions the way I do. From my personal perspective, I provide keys to the game and then summarize how I think the game will go if Arizona wins or if it loses. The final score prediction at the end is my way to wrap up the “Arizona wins if” scenario.

So with that said, I’ll be picking the Wildcats again this week. Maybe they do, maybe they don’t. Maybe I get the score right again, but I probably won’t.

What I will do is walk us through my perspective on this game, and it’s a big one.

I say this is a big game, but it’s actually a bigger one for Washington than Arizona. Rewind a few weeks and no one expected the Wildcats to be 2-0 and leading the Pac-12 South, and even fewer would have figured the Huskies would find themselves at 1-2 in the Pac-12.

This is a really difficult spot for Chris Petersen and his staff, because the schedule isn’t easier after the trip to Tucson. It sets up an almost “must-win” scenario for them Saturday night in Tucson.

It’s impossible to predict the mindset that Washington will have. Are they hungry, fearless and physical for four quarters as a team with its back against the wall should be? Or are they ripe for a knockout punch if the Wildcats come out quickly and get a good home crowd on their side?

My belief is that Washington has to come out throwing the punches. The coaches have to inject some new energy in the form of more aggressive play-calling and perhaps utilizing some freshmen and younger players that have not played as much.

Petersen built part of his coaching identity around well-designed, well-timed and perfectly executed trick plays at Boise State. That carried over to Washington, but we have not seen too much of that season. Perhaps this is a week where the Huskies break out a few of those tricks to spark their team offensively and/or in special teams.

Arizona was caught off guard twice last week with these types of plays. The first was in a sudden change situation following Khalil Tate’s interception. The ensuing play was a reverse pass, with receiver K.D. Nixon throwing a 38-yard touchdown pass. Later, the Buffaloes put their top (healthy) playmaker, Tony Brown, in a position to get the ball on an end-around, and the Wildcats could not tackle him in space, and it went for a touchdown.

Considering Arizona escaped Boulder with a win last week, these were good lessons to learn heading into this week’s matchup with Washington should the Huskies try to pull some similar tricks.

When it’s all said and done, though, I expect the more physical football team to win this game. Can Arizona win the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball? Can receivers get open off press coverage? Can the secondary tackle in space?

Then of course, you factor in turnovers. To pull another upset, the Wildcats will need to get back on the good side of the turnover battle. That was another overlooked aspect to last week’s win. Arizona turned it over once, and did not force a turnover for the first time season.

Lastly, the Wildcats need – and deserve – a big game effort from the Zona Zoo and Arizona Stadium crowd. It is Family Weekend, which sometimes thins out the student section so those kids can sit with family and friends elsewhere in the stadium. But there should be no question this will be the biggest and best crowd of the year at Arizona Stadium. The Wildcats need to get the crowd engaged early.

Now, here are my keys to the game:

1. Stay on Schedule (offense)
2. Win the Line of Scrimmage (offense and defense)
3. Win the Turnover Battle (All phases)
4. Be Physical (all phases)
5. Don’t Get Tricked (defense and special Teams)

Arizona wins if …

The Wildcats play a complete game. Even in the four-game win streak, Arizona has yet to play its best football in all phases at the same time. If the Wildcats execute at a high level offensively, defensively and in special teams, not only can they win this game, they will win it. That is much easier said than done, but this is a confident football team and if it can make a couple big plays early, the Arizona Stadium crowd will come to life. The sooner the Wildcats can get the fans into the game and build a lead, the better. Washington has been a very good first-quarter team this season, outscoring opponents 84-6 in the first 15 minutes. This game will by no means be over after 15 minutes, but an early touchdown or two from Arizona will put the Huskies in a very unfamiliar position.  If the Wildcats can play a clean and turnover-free game offensively, it will make life tougher for the maligned Washington offense. I expect the Arizona defense to come out playing fast and physical, and Marcel Yates’ group seems to play its best at home with the crowd at full throat. To do so, the Wildcats need a tremendous effort from the defensive front to slow down Washington’s power run game. If that happens, the Wildcats can force quarterback Jacob Eason to make plays with his talented arm, and the Arizona secondary must deliver a standout performance in coverage. Finishing drives will once again be key for the Arizona offense, but also for the defense against a Husky offense that has struggled in the red zone. This is going to be a football game for the mentally and physically tough. The Wildcats need to embrace that and outlast the Huskies at their own game.  

Arizona loses if …

Washington gets off to its typical fast start (84-6 advantage in opening quarter), silences the crowd and a physical, aggressive defense shuts down Khalil Tate and the Wildcats’ offense. Make no mistake: the Huskies are a very talented football team and they have been getting everyone’s best shot week-in and week-out. They also have been hearing criticism from fans and media, so they will feel like they have a lot to prove. Eason is an immensely talented quarterback who has had trouble, at times, developing a rhythm with his receivers, who have done little to help him out. But what’s in the past, is in the past. The Huskies will have a plan this week – one that, if they execute, will likely be difficult for Arizona to overcome. I believe it starts with a physical approach to run the football at the Wildcats, then use play-action to set up shots down field. If they struggle to run the ball or if the downfield shots aren’t there, Petersen will have some tricks up his sleeve to spark things. If those plays hit, Washington can snatch momentum away from the Wildcats in the blink of an eye. From there, if the Huskies can build a lead, they are very tough to come back on. Arizona does not want to be playing catch up against the Washington defense, which thrives on putting teams and quarterbacks in predictable situations. If Washington is the aggressor and is able to win the turnover battle, the Huskies should prevail.  

The Prediction:

Arizona 31, Washington 27

This week’s Top 25 and Pac-12 Picks to Click can be viewed here.

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