UCLA at Arizona Game Prediction

Scouting the Bruins:

• What to Expect From UCLA’s Offense

• What to Expect From UCLA’s Defense

Since 2005, the Arizona-UCLA series is tied 7-7.

Problem is, for the Wildcats, the Bruins have prevailed in six of the last seven.

That recent history has left a sour taste in the mouth of any Arizona player, coach or fan.

However, recent history should have little to do with this game. Both teams have second-year head coaches and both are coming off crucial wins in their last outing. One of these squads will back up that performance with another important victory that could change perceptions and trajectory for a program still early in a new coach’s tenure.

For Arizona, protecting home turf is paramount. It’s only a six-game home slate this year, which means after Saturday there only three games remaining in Arizona Stadium this season. That alone should put some energy in the Cardinal and Navy clad fans, especially the Zona Zoo.

Interestingly, each program has some health questions. Arizona’s Khalil Tate and J.J. Taylor were banged up in the Texas Tech game, while UCLA quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) was also nicked up at Washington State. Should any of those players, especially the quarterbacks, be limited or unavailable Saturday, then things could take a bit of a turn as we break down this matchup.

Both teams are likely to come out with high emotions. The Bruins, especially, have a ton to gain and little to lose considering their position seven days ago. They stole a game with a hard-fought comeback win last week in Pullman, and now have the opportunity to build on that confidence and emerge as a sleeper in the Pac-12 South with a win in Tucson.

Arizona must shake off any rustiness from the bye week and get back to playing the type of football it displayed against Texas Tech. That is easier said than done, but there was still plenty to improve upon even after that victory. Putting together a complete offensive and defensive game would be welcomed to indicate the true potential of this team. To this point, we still don’t have a great feel for this team.

With that said, here are five keys for the Wildcats entering the contest:

1. Run to Win (which team successfully establishes the run?)
2. Win middle of the field (offense and defense)
3. Limit big plays (defense/special teams)
4. Don’t let DTR get comfortable (defense)
5. Win special teams

Arizona wins if…

The offense comes out clicking on all cylinders and the defense picks up where it left off against Texas Tech.  UCLA is going to come in with loads of confidence and certainly will have a strong game plan offensively and defensively. The sooner Arizona is able to wrestle the momentum of this game, the more likely it is to temper the emotions the Bruins will have early on. The Wildcats must remember what their identity is one on both sides off the ball. Offensively, the ground game must be established early on. J.J. Taylor and Gary Brightwell each had 100-yard rushing games against UCLA last season, so the formula is there. Along with this, Tate can be the X-factor with his legs and his arm, but he does not need to force things. The plays will be there with a strong performance by the offensive line. Defensively, Arizona must stop the Bruins’ ground attack and put the game in the hands of Thompson-Robinson. If the Wildcat defense is winning on first downs and keeping the Bruins off schedule, they can turn up the pressure on Thompson-Robinson and potentially force a couple turnovers. I again look to the leadership and instincts of players like Jace Whittaker and Colin Schooler to get Arizona lined up on defense, and then the Wildcats must get numbers to the football and tackle well. Don’t underestimate the importance of the kicking game in this one to help win field position and force the Bruins to either make big plays or sustain drives the length of the field.

Arizona loses if…

The Bruins get the ground game going early, Tate and Taylor are banged up and the Wildcats’ offense is slow out of the gates. If UCLA can run the ball, Chip Kelly will be able to toy with Arizona’s defense by mixing up run and pass calls with play action. At the same time, it takes pressure off Thompson-Robinson to make plays, and he already comes in off his best performance of the year. On the defensive side, the Bruins have gotten a couple playmakers back on the field in recent weeks and they forced six turnovers at Washington State. If they can stop Arizona early on and build off momentum from last week, it could quickly become an uphill battle for the Wildcats. This game is as big to UCLA as it is to Arizona, so the Bruins will come out with plenty of emotion. One also is concerned with Arizona coming off the bye. While it provided time to keep players fresh and healthy, can the Wildcats get back to executing and playing at game speed? Blocking, tackling and discipline are all things that will get tested after the week off, and playing a hungry Bruins’ squad may prove difficult.

The Prediction:

Arizona 38, UCLA 24

This week’s Top 25 and Pac-12 Picks to Click can be viewed here.

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