Unpacking the Pac

By now, everyone knows a lot rides on how the Pac-12 performs in its non-conference schedule this season. Much of that perception will come down to how Oregon performs on the national stage Week 1 against Auburn. But the conference also needs UCLA (at Cincinnati) and Stanford (Northwestern) to play well in more off-the-radar games, while slip-ups by Utah (at BYU) and USC (Fresno State) would also be detrimental to the national narrative of the league.

The depth of this league will be its strength, which may also be its weakness. Even if the Ducks gain respect with a win over Auburn, there’s still a daunting slate in the conference, especially the North Division. That’s why it’s critical that the league also plays well in the “off-the-radar” games so a potential setback doesn’t look as bad from a national narrative. Keeping a 1-loss team in contention for the College Football Playoff doesn’t happen unless there is respect for the league, and much of that respect is established in how schools fare against other Power 5 teams.  This year, that includes Nebraska, Michigan State, Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Oklahoma and Notre Dame (twice). There’s also three games against BYU, as well as key matchups with Central Florida, Hawai’i (three), Houston, Fresno State and Cincinnati. All of those opponents will shape the season for individual programs and the conference as a whole.

Regardless of how the league fares on the national level, it should be fun to watch the races in both the North and South Divisions. Entering the year, it appears the North is stronger with national-level contenders, while the South is filled with several potential sleepers below the favorite, Utah. But football is football and there will be plenty of surprises along the way. So here’s a look at how I see the Pac-12 shaking out as we approach the 2019 season.

South Division

1. USC
2. Utah
3. Arizona State
4. UCLA
5. Colorado

The Pac-12 South race is going to be fascinating to watch. Utah is a trendy pick this season and for good reason. The Utes may be the most balanced team in the division and will continue to lean heavily on their defense, which keeps them in most every contest. They get five league games at Rice-Eccles Stadium where they have a decided advantage, but road games at USC and at Washington do concern me especially with the lofty preseason expectations.

The showdown between the Utes and Trojans comes on a Week 4 Friday night in Los Angeles with the winner getting a decided upper hand the rest of the way. USC is a difficult team to project, but the talent is undeniable. Playing the Utes’ physical style of ball won’t sneak up on the Trojans since they will be coming off games against Stanford and at BYU in the two previous weeks. But could that wear down the Trojans who then have road games at Washington and Notre Dame next up on the slate?

If the Trojans can knock off Utah in Week 4, I don’t see Utah escaping the rest of the slate unscathed (at Washington first week of November). Thus, two-losses could again win the Pac-12 South. While Utah is a good bet to win the league, I’ll take the Trojans in the Coliseum Week 4 plus the fact the Utes are facing expectations they have not faced in the league. It’s tough to win in the Pac-12 no matter how good you.

As for the rest of the South, I expect Arizona, ASU and UCLA to be improved from a season ago. You’ll notice I do not place Arizona in my rankings above because there is too much built-in bias for me (and the Cats may be one of the toughest teams to project anyway). The Sun Devils get a favorable draw with five conference home games, including visits from USC, Oregon and the Wildcats in the Territorial Cup. I slot ASU ahead of UCLA because of the schedule as the Bruins have road trips to Pullman, Palo Alto, Salt Lake City and the Coliseum. Oh, and there’s the Week 5 trip to Tucson, which will be a pivotal matchup for both the Cats and Bruins. Still, I liked the steady improvement the Bruins made offensively last season and they are a very young roster, so it’s only a matter of time until Chip Kelly has them contending in the South.

At the bottom of the division is Colorado, but the Buffaloes will play tough with a new coaching staff, a veteran quarterback and perhaps the most explosive player in the league. However, Colorado faces a very difficult schedule with five conference road games, in addition to facing arguably the four best teams out of the North (Oregon, WSU, Stanford and Washington). Even so, I would not discount the Buffaloes pulling off a surprise or two.

North Division

1. Washington
2. Oregon
3. Stanford
4. Washington State
5. California
6. Oregon State

It’s good news, bad news in the North. The good news this should be a strong and competitive division, but the bad news is that can work against the league positioning a team for the CFB Playoffs. Much of the Pac-12’s reputation will be established based on the Week 1 showdown between Oregon and Auburn. An early-season victory for the league will prop up the rest of the conference, especially the North Division.

There are multiple contenders in the North, starting with the Ducks and rival Washington. The Huskies have done the best sustained recruiting job in the league and they’ve been the cream of the crop in the North the last couple seasons. I think the way they have recruited combined with how well-coached they are gives them an edge going into the year, especially with the schedule they draw. Washington has won 14 straight conference home games, and Utah, Oregon and USC all visit Husky Stadium this season. The road slate includes a potential road block in Stanford, but otherwise is manageable with Arizona, Oregon State and Colorado on the draw.

Meanwhile, Oregon must prove it can win on the road. The Ducks are just 4-12 in conference road games the last several seasons, and this year travel to Washington, USC and Stanford. Because of this, I am giving Washington the advantage in the North. But these programs will meet in Week 8 for their annual rivalry game, which surely will factor into the division race.

The list of contenders should extend to Stanford and Washington State as well, though both programs are a little off the radar. I would be shocked for Stanford to not be improved from a year ago, especially if they can reestablish the ground game to complete what should be a dynamic passing attack. I give the Cardinal a slight edge over the Cougars, who face a tougher conference schedule with trips to Utah, Oregon and Washington. However, a Nov. 16 matchup on the Palouse could be the difference-maker for these two.

On the outside looking in will be California, which is dangerous in its own right. The Bears’ defense will be one of the league’s best, and the offense has to be improved simply because it can’t be much worse than it was a year ago. But the schedule is brutal with road games at Oregon, Utah, Stanford and Washington. Fortunately, Cal does get Oregon State at home, which should keep the Bears comfortably ahead of the Beavers who still lack the talent to move up a very difficult division. Cal may pull an upset or two along the way, but it’s probably too much to ask for them to challenge for the division title. It would be a shame if fans in Berkeley sour on Justin Wilcox if their record doesn’t improve this year; the program is on the right track.

It will also be interesting to keep an eye on Jonathan Smith’s second year in Corvallis. Talent-wise, Oregon State still lacks the horses to compete week-in and week-out, especially in the deep North Division. The offense should make progress this year and keep the Beavers more competitive, but the depth and ability to stop other high-powered offenses will remain a concern. Energy and enthusiasm for Smith’s rebuilding job seems to be in a good place, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see tangible progress this fall. But asking this team to make a jump above anyone else is the North is at least a year away, barring a big surprise. 

Pac-12 Football Championship Game
Washington vs. USC

Winner: Washington

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