I am as guilty as any when it comes to expecting nothing short of excellence from Arizona basketball. I grew up going to games at McKale, admired the Hall of Fame coach roaming the sidelines and, like so many in these parts, anxiously awaited the NCAA Tournament each March.
So, when Arizona went down without much of a fight in the final stages of Saturday’s loss to rival UCLA, I tweeted the following:
Indeed, basketball is a simple game. Put the ball in the hoop.
Every team looks great when the shots are falling. Those that also choose to defend, rebound and dive on the floor after loose balls almost always come out on top. The ones that do it consistently win a lot of games and position themselves for a deep run in March.
But college basketball, like all collegiate sports, is a game played by young people – which makes it so fun and unpredictable. The younger the players, usually the more unpredictable things are.
Some players have good days, others bad. Some players like each other, some don’t. Some players listen to their coach, others don’t. Some get better, some get worse. Some love competition, others hide from it. Some graduate, some transfer and some quit.
This holds true for all team sports, but in the current landscape of college basketball, the identity of a team and the individuals that make up that team clash constantly. The influx of talented freshman, the perpetual occurrence of transfers and other attrition now makes chemistry and team-building a short-term task rather than a long-term plan like it used to be for programs.
Even so, one of the key things I look for in a team, regardless of the sport, is what is the identity of a team?
We are 23 games into the 2019-20 Arizona basketball season and one thing has become abundantly clear: the identity of this team is all about the three freshmen – Nico Mannion, Josh Green and Zeke Nnaji. Each is incredibly gifted, plays hard and has a bright future in the game of basketball. They want to win and we want them to win, but it’s not coming as easily as maybe some think it should be.
That makes this unchartered territory not only for Sean Miller, but Arizona basketball fans who so desperately want the program to reestablish itself as a perennial power and certainly return to the Final Four.
Unprecedented Territory
The freshman trio rank as the top three scorers on the roster. They are the only three players averaging double-digit point totals, not only over the course of 23 total games, but in 10 contests against Pac-12 teams.
No other Arizona team from the Lute Olson era to present day has been led in scoring by three freshmen. In fact, the only time a pair of freshmen have been among the team’s top three scorers was in 2017, when freshmen Lauri Markkanen and Rawle Alkins trailed sophomore Allonzo Trier as the leading scorers.
That 2017 team is one of only two squads since Lute Olson was hired in 1983 that has been without an upperclassman among the top three scorers. The other was in 2008, after Olson’s retirement when Kevin O’Neil was the coach, with freshman Jerryd Bayless leading the way and sophomores Chase Budinger and Jordan Hill rounding out the top 3.
I think it is really important for Arizona fans to let that soak in.
Despite all the McDonald’s All-Americans and other future NBA stars that have come into the program under Olson and Miller, no freshman class has ever had to shoulder as much of the load as this one has been doing. Through last week, freshmen accounted for 8 of the 11 gold jerseys handed out by the coaching staff since practices began in the fall (awarded to the player that plays up to the “Gold Standard” in practice and games).
It is especially eye-opening to realize that no freshman backcourt has been tasked with as much of the scoring burden as Mannion and Green. Maybe the closest comparison would be the 1999-2000 team with a freshman backcourt of Jason Gardner and Gilbert Arenas (averaged 12.6 and 15.4 points per game, respectively). However, the Wildcats were led in scoring that season by two post players – junior Loren Woods and sophomore Michael Wright. Plus, there was a junior wing – Richard Jefferson – who also averaged some 11 points per game.
Thus, when we look at the inconsistency of this year’s team after nearly two dozen games, it’s easy to be critical of the guys playing the most – which is the freshman class. But freshmen – even in the one-and-done era – are going to have ups and downs throughout the year.
This is the first time in their basketball lives where they are facing not only consistently talented teams with older players, but coaching staffs that have unlimited resources to scout tendencies and develop game plans to take away strengths. That is frustrating for freshmen who discover they not only have to work through an occasional shooting slump, but constantly adjust to what is being thrown at them game in and game out.
What’s the Problem?
Where this Arizona basketball team has fallen short is in the cast around the talented freshman group. Let’s consider what was coming back with experience and what was being added.
From last season, Dylan Smith, Chase Jeter and Ira Lee returned (guard Brandon Williams was to miss the season following offseason knee surgery, and Devonaire Doutrive left the team early in the season). Each was a key contributor on a short-handed and talent-starved roster a season ago.
The hope was Smith would be a steady 3-and-D glue guy, but he’s been more inconsistent than hoped for a veteran. While he had some big moments earlier this year, his shooting has fallen off in conference play (which is the opposite of his progression a year ago). He remains a valuable defensive asset with his length, but his rebounding rate has sagged this season. In fact, in 10 conference games, he has grabbed just one defensive rebound in four contests; he had only five such games all of last season and has a staggering 11 this year with one or no defensive rebounds.
Similarly, Lee was to be counted on for his energy and toughness on the floor with more size added to the roster around him. He displayed incredible improvement the second half of last season, especially offensively when he ranked third in the entire conference for field goal percentage in Pac-12 games. However, he has not been able to consistently contribute offensively this season and continues to have too many breakdowns defensively for a veteran. Most alarming, though, has been the drop off in his rebounding. Four of his last five outings have seen him grab one or no defensive rebounds.
Then there is Jeter, who has gone completely MIA due to injury and coaching decisions to not play him. Last season, Jeter averaged 11 points per game and made 57 percent of his shots. This year, when he was playing, he was down under 8 points per game, but was shooting at 56 percent. However, his rebounding also dropped from 6.6 per game last season to 4.9 this year. While limited in his overall skillset, he’s a serviceable post defender and big enough body to be a factor on the glass. That’s been a significant missing element this season, whether he has been available to play or not.
Arizona also added a number of key pieces to the roster through transfers. Stone Gettings sat out last spring semester as a graduate transfer, but he was expected to provide more size and the ability to stretch defenses from the power forward position. The concussion and facial injury set him back several weeks during the toughened-up portion of the non-conference slate and beginning of conference play, but he has developed into a valuable contributor that has earned his place in the starting lineup. He’s a more rugged and useful post player than advertised, and if he asserts himself on the defensive glass more, will continue to make the team better.
The next acquisition was the graduate transfer, Hazzard, who was known for his three-point shooting prowess. This continues to be his main contribution to the squad as he’s limited in his ability to create shots and match up defensively against bigger guards. However, he has not scored now in three straight games and has only four 3-point shot attempts in those games. If Arizona is going to realize its full potential, it has to find a way to get Hazzard a few good looks, especially early in games. When he is a weapon, it takes pressure off Mannion and Green, and opens up the floor.
The last addition was Baker, a transfer from Kentucky. His availability this season (received a waiver to be eligible to play immediately) has been tremendous, and he’s slowly beginning to find his role with the team. More often, he’s taking and making open shots, he can match up well and be a physical defender, and he takes meticulous care of the ball. When he is in the game, he also offers the Wildcats the chance to move Mannion off the ball, which opens up more options for the offense.
We have yet to mention another freshman, Christian Koloko, who has incredible upside and plays a needed role off the bench for size and length when Nnaji is out of the game. He’s still very raw, needs strength and doesn’t fully understand the game on offense and defense yet, but in limited spurts he is progressing nicely. His need to play would be lessened if the Wildcats were getting what they expected out of Jeter and also Lee.
Are There Solutions?
When we take everything into account, we are left with a pretty clear picture of what this team is. Mannion and Green are immensely talented freshman guards, and Nnaji has been a revelation with his skillset and presence on the floor. That is the core of the team. Everyone else at this point of the season needs to fill in around those three guys.
So how does that happen? The first move began several weeks ago when Gettings was put in the starting lineup. His inside-out versatility helps the Wildcats, especially on offense.
The next move may be another change in the starting lineup. I would like to see Baker start along with Mannion and Green. This would get Mannion more opportunities early in games to be off the ball to get shots without having to create them with the ball in his hand. If shots go in early, it will only make him more dangerous throughout the game when he can create shots with the ball in his hand.
The concern with this lineup change would be how does Smith respond to the sixth man role? That’s a fair concern, but he’s always been a positive, team-first player that would hopefully see the value in coming off the bench to be a spark defensively, taking open 3s and getting after rebounds and loose balls. That is where his value to the team stands, and giving him four or five minutes at the start of the game to see how things are playing out may make him more efficient in those roles. He can replace any of the three guards since two point guards will already be on the floor.
That leaves Hazzard as the next guard available, and as stated earlier, getting him looks early in the game will be key not only for his confidence, but making defenses adjust to him. The fact he has taken four three pointers total in the last three games is a waste of his shooting talent. If his shot isn’t falling, he can sit more, but he needs to come into games knowing he’s going to get his opportunity to help the team because he will get a couple chances each time out.
On the interior, Lee, Koloko and (maybe?) Jeter will have to provide the depth and balance behind Nnaji and Gettings. The lack of contributions from Lee, and especially Jeter, as outlined earlier, have led to the Wildcats using more four-guard lineups, but this is severely limiting to the defense and overall rebounding.
With that said, I think it is worth pointing out just how much responsibility Green has taken on this season. While a natural shooting guard, he’s able to play four positions offensively and can guard at least three spots defensively. When the Wildcats opt for the smaller, four-guard offense, Green can be used as a slashing 4-man that can attack the basket off the dribble or be freed up with screens to post up down low when he gets a smaller player switched onto him. He’s learned these various roles while also being tasked with matching up with opposing team’s top scorers quite frequently. As he becomes more and more familiar with everything he’s being asked to do, we can expect more consistency from him – especially shooting.
Really, that’s the key for the ultimate success and maturation of this team in the next month or so. The roles can – if they already haven’t – be identified for every player on the team to close out conference play. Sometimes it is easy for role players to see how talented the freshmen are and sit back expecting them to do everything, every game. That’s not how it works.
The freshman are going to be the nucleus of everything this squad does, but they can only do so much. Getting consistent effort and contributions from the role players is as vital as getting the consistent performances from the freshmen, who at this point aren’t truly freshmen anymore. They must realize that this is their team and it’s time they begin holding those around them accountable as much as they worry about their own individual performances.
Did You Know?
The formula for winning national championships is not, at least historically, fabulous freshman scorers. In fact, last year’s Final Four was comprised of teams that had two seniors, six juniors and four sophomores ranking as a top-3 scorer on his respective team, but no freshmen.
Looking at the top three scorers on each of the last 10 national championship squads, only four of 30 possible players have been freshmen. Of the remaining, six were sophomores, 14 juniors and six seniors.
Only two of the 10 championship teams have been led in scoring by a freshman (2015 Duke – Jahlil Okafor; 2012 Kentucky – Anthony Davis). The 2015 Duke team was the only with multiple freshmen among the top three scoring players (third player was a senior). The only team to win a title without an upperclassman in the top 3 for scoring was the 2012 Kentucky team, which had two sophomores and a freshman.
Going back further, the 2003 Syracuse team was led in scoring by two freshmen and a sophomore, which may rank as the “least experienced” national champion when looking at the top 3 leading scorers on a team.
Curious how you get out of the cycle of one and done. If you keep recruiting the best talent they’re gonna leave early. Hard to have any Srs left if kids dissatisfied with playing time leave early
Going to Final Fours and winning championships can – and is – done with one-and-done players. The three schools with the most one-and-done NBA draft picks since 2006 (when the NBA set the age limit at 19) have been Kentucky, Duke and Kansas. Each has won a title during the span, and Duke has won two. Those players are important because of their elite talent. But they typically aren’t tasked with what this Arizona freshman class is doing (and it remains to be seen how many of the 3 will be one-and-dones or if any return for next year).
I don’t think it’s necessarily fair to take this Arizona team as a case study to make big picture conclusions on the current or future prospects of Sean’s recruiting model and program. Because of the FBI/NCAA issues of the last couple years, particularly the direct target Miller became through ESPN’s reporting, Arizona had to essentially start over. Last season became a lost cause, which had dramatic effect on what the roster would look like for 2019-20, which was quite bleak until Nico, Josh and Zeke came on board. Unfortunately, the returning pieces and talent in the program from the last 1-2 years hasn’t been able to take the next step around these freshmen like what Aaron Gordon (and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson) were complemented with by Nick Johnson/TJ McConnell/Brandon Ashley/Etc. in 2013-14.
Of course, none of this factors in transfers (traditional and graduate), which are now a critical component of roster management for coaches in almost every collegiate sport.