Oregon State 56, Arizona 38 | Final Stats (PDF)
Arizona disappointingly lost to Oregon State in a game full of big numbers.
The Beavers scored 56 points, paced by 35 in the first half. They totaled 572 yards of offense, including 244 on the ground and 328 through the air.
But, the most important number on Saturday was 406.
It had been 406 days since the Wildcats, playing just their fourth game in the Kevin Sumlin era, went into Corvallis, Ore., and convincingly defeated Oregon State, 35-14. The Beavers were also playing in their fourth game under new coach Jonathan Smith.
For any of the 33,022 fans at Reser Stadium that early fall afternoon, it was clear how much work the Beavers had to do before they could close the gap on teams like Arizona, which itself was only a 5-7 team a year ago.
On Saturday, before an announced Homecoming crowd of 36,939 at Arizona Stadium, it was clear how far Smith’s program had come in the 58 weeks since the last meeting. Oregon State was the better team in all phases of the game, playing with a confidence, especially offensively, that looked more like that of a 10-win team than one that was 2-10 a year ago.
While Smith & Co. deserve credit for their improvement, which includes doubling their win total four with still four games to go, it also became vividly clear on Saturday that the Wildcats have regressed in Sumlin’s second season.
The reasons for Arizona’s regression are many and not all the fault of Sumlin: lack of top talent and depth, inept defense, inadequate quarterback play, injuries, etc. But there is another constant in play: coaching.
Chasing Points
In last year’s season-ending loss to Arizona State, Sumlin called for two-point conversion tries twice at early moments in the game – once in the second quarter and again in the third quarter.
Earlier this year, in August preseason camp, Sumlin addressed the topic and admitted it may not have been the wisest decision. Here’s how Michael Lev of the Arizona Daily Star described Sumlin’s mea culpa.
“It’s probably something I shouldn’t have done,” Sumlin said. “I probably should have just waited till the fourth quarter, as I usually do.”
Sumlin said he doesn’t believe in going for two in the first half “most of the time” but that it also depends on his “feel for the game.”
“You’d like to wait till the fourth quarter to really start thinking about going for two,” Sumlin said. “It depends on where you are on that number. We got off of it early.”
I revisit this because, on Saturday, the Wildcats again began chasing points once again in the second quarter. Trailing 14-6, Gary Brightwell’s 38-yard touchdown reception cut the deficit to 14-12 with 13:03 remaining in the first half. The Wildcats went for two and failed to convert.
A two-point conversion would have tied the game, which is always the intrigue, but when that try fails, the opponent’s next touchdown will make it a two-possession game (assuming the PAT kick is made). That’s exactly what happened as Oregon State answered with a touchdown drive, taking a 21-12 lead four minutes later.
This created a situation later in the half where Arizona was again trailing by two scores, 28-19, with 2:26 remaining in the first half. The Wildcats had what I would term a two-for-one opportunity, as they had possession of the ball to end the half and then would receive the kickoff to open the second half.
However, this turned into a worst-case scenario after moving the ball down to the Oregon State 35-yardline. Khalil Tate was sacked for an 11-yard loss, pushing the ball back to the 46-yardline. The Wildcats called timeout with 1:22 on the clock. Then, Tate was sacked again on the next play, this time for a loss of 10 yards all the way back across midfield to the Arizona 44-yardline.
Arizona was facing a third-and-31, and elected to call timeout with 1:07 on the clock. The chances of either converting the third-and-31 or getting the ball back into long field goal range were both unlikely, which made this timeout highly questionable.
The result was a short completion out of bounds on the third down play, again stopping the clock. The Wildcats punted to the Oregon State 8-yardline, with the Beavers taking possession with 58 seconds remaining and timeouts to use. The Beavers broke off a string of big plays and finished the half with a touchdown, taking the 35-19 lead to the break.
Perplexing Personnel
While the time management was concerning, so was the personnel management.
Tate started at quarterback and led Arizona to two scoring drives, but both stalled out and ended with field goals. On Arizona’s third possession, Grant Gunnell took over at quarterback, as was the likely plan going into the game no matter what.
Gunnell engineered two straight touchdown drives, getting the Wildcats within two points at 21-19 with 5:41 left in the first half. Whatever the difference, the offense was effectively finishing drives with Gunnell at quarterback.
So, when Arizona got the ball back following another Oregon State touchdown, it seemed natural that Gunnell would be back out to lead the drive with 2:26 remaining in the half.
Instead, coaches went with Tate, and the result was the aforementioned stalled drive with multiple sacks and questionable clock management.
The halftime stats: Two of the five possessions resulted in touchdowns, with each touchdown drive led with Gunnell at quarterback.
Arizona opened the second half with the ball trailing 35-19, but it was not Gunnell getting the call. Rather, Tate started the second half and it was a three-and-out, before Oregon State marched for another touchdown.
By the time the Wildcats got the ball back and put Gunnell back in the game, they trailed 42-19. The Beavers had scored 21 unanswered points since Gunnell had last taken a snap.
The Middle 8
The decision to reinsert Tate at the end of the first and start of the second half tied directly into a hidden statistic that the analytics world has uncovered over the years: the middle eight minutes.
The middle eight minutes are the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. It’s essentially one way to quantify momentum, which can be earned or lost at the end or start of halves, especially depending upon who receives the second half kickoff.
This past spring, SportSource Analytics tweeted out some remarkable stats about the importance of the middle eight minutes. In August, Zach Dunn expanded on these statistics and applied it to the NFL in a blog for USA Football.
As we go back to Saturday’s Oregon State victory, the Beavers scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the first half for a 14-0 advantage. Arizona’s subsequent three-and-out to open the second half set up another Beaver touchdown, which came at the 10:36 mark. While that did not specifically fit into the first four minutes of the half, it essentially was.
That was a 21-0 advantage in the middle eight minutes. The Beavers won by 18.
Add up the questionable time management and personnel decisions, combine that with a porous defense, and it was a recipe for disaster for Arizona.
This, after the Wildcats actually were in a great position to win this middle eight minutes when they took possession late in the first half and would open the second half with the football.
Things Stayed the Same
Unfortunately for the Wildcats, my prediction for “Arizona will lose if …” played out. While Arizona shook up its defensive staff, it got the same results. Here was the fear:
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Arizona’s defense and special teams have to step up, and the offense needs to stop turning the ball over (nine in last three games). If those trends continue, the Beavers are more than capable of spoiling the Wildcats’ Homecoming festivities. Oregon State has a very balanced offense, which starts with a steady run attack and opens up with play-action passes. Arizona needs improved play from its linebackers and safeties both in stopping the run, but also defending the middle of the field. This is a task easier said than done, and a place where the Wildcats have been exploited at times this year.
Reviewing the Keys to the Game
1. Win the Turnover Battle (all phases)
Arizona neither lost a turnover nor created one. The Wildcats have forced just two turnovers in the last five games and have not won the turnover battle since the Sept. 28 victory against UCLA.
2. Protect the QBs (offensive line)
All in all, the patchwork offensive line did a good job. The Beavers had four sacks, two on Tate at the end of the first half and two on Gunnell throughout the game. Tate lost 21 yards on his sacks, while Gunnell lost nine yards.
3. Get Numbers to the Football (defense/special teams)
The Wildcats were out-manned and out-schemed most of the game. Two of the top three tacklers in the game were defensive backs Lorenzo Burns and Jace Whittaker, who combined for 17 stops, including 14 solo. It was another highly disappointing performance for the defense, which is not being put in position to effectively stop the run and misses too many tackles when it is in position.
4. Pressure the QB (defense)
Despite three sacks, the Wildcats did not produce adequate pressure on quarterback Jake Luton. The effective run game consistently set up play-action passes, and Luton’s 6-foot-7 frame was able to comfortably stay in the pocket and deliver the football at a highly efficient 20-for-26 clip with 328 yards and three touchdowns.
5. Big Special Teams Play
The Wildcats were – again – unable to establish an advantage in special teams. With Lucas Havrisik missing an extra point and field goal, Arizona gave away points in an area it desperately needs to win to make up for the poor defense.
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